World Politics · resolved market
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14471b8ba9899211f6a66fcab32fc5d05333a739d4a9da01b4280849d795cc24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,839,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,258,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,839,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 415 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 8c | 94,039$7,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,647.68 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 91,851$4,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,457.81 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 9c | 69,283$6,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,168.77 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aca…ace7backed Yes | 5c | 66,615$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…9648backed Yes | 5c | 59,769$2,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,794.23 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 1c | 58,500$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.27 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 4c | 50,039$2,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,027.68 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 3c | 48,673$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.3 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…3afcbacked Yes | 9c | 46,525$4,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,054.43 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 5c | 45,251$2,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,064.42 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 5c | 42,268$2,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,316.1 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6f…6e01backed Yes | 2c | 33,194$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 11cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 13c | 32,023$4,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,192.01 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 10c | 31,500$3,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,183 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…42acbacked Yes | 8c | 30,967$2,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,401.15 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c8…6579backed Yes | 3c | 29,699$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 6c | 29,470$1,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,861.72 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 5c | 29,286$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.78 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 3c | 28,652$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.15 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +31%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 7c | 27,075$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,783.4 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes | 3c | 26,850$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.05 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaef…5d9cbacked Yes | 4c | 26,666$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +167.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 0c | 26,490$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 26,339$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.06 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…d7bdbacked Yes | 10c | 25,795$2,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,540.51 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 4c | 25,415$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.54 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 4c | 24,182$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.32 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 21,748$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe056…c62cbacked Yes | 1c | 19,302$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 18cpaid | +157.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba5…5158backed Yes | 1c | 19,122$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9389…aaffbacked Yes | 0c | 18,363$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 2cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…32b3backed Yes | 7c | 17,685$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.86 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Yes | 8c | 17,083$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…cfc8backed Yes | 5c | 16,231$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 16,149$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.57 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 4c | 16,051$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.28 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c6…01c0backed Yes | 10c | 16,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…9c69backed Yes | 5c | 15,853$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…201bbacked Yes | 3c | 15,463$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.39 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…ca08backed Yes | 4c | 15,200$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 12c | 13,301$1,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,537.52 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf735…6157backed Yes | 3c | 13,000$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 5c | 12,652$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.74 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6853…d5c0backed Yes | 3c | 12,045$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2daa…a350backed Yes | 4c | 11,713$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.91 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…2264backed Yes | 8c | 11,505$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 27cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…cd54backed Yes | 4c | 11,410$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.6 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes | 3c | 11,403$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 5c | 11,235$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.13 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f2…2cd0backed Yes | 6c | 11,201$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.57 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1e…f6c8backed Yes | 9c | 11,130$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.29 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a3…8992backed Yes | 4c | 10,550$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 13c | 10,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 4c | 10,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 3c | 9,859$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40bc…79dbbacked Yes | 3c | 9,668$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 17cpaid | +190.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4d…974cbacked Yes | 2c | 9,492$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 6c | 9,385$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.73 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…0c33backed Yes | 2c | 9,104$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5221…531cbacked Yes | 2c | 9,089$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 6c | 9,084$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 7c | 9,034$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.12 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 6c | 8,725$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.57 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Yes | 7c | 8,713$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.22 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc90a…b957backed Yes | 12c | 8,684$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…8015backed Yes | 4c | 8,680$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.21 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 3c | 8,537$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.47 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 5c | 8,328$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.41 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…9249backed Yes | 15c | 8,132$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.89 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…f962backed Yes | 5c | 7,190$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 7,028$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.92 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x199c…d1babacked Yes | 14c | 7,012$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 8c | 7,000$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.5 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 15c | 6,551$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fef…cdcbbacked Yes | 5c | 6,522$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 13c | 6,418$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…f58abacked Yes | 8c | 6,293$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…62bbbacked Yes | 14c | 6,196$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.06 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 5c | 6,156$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.44 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…771abacked Yes | 3c | 6,099$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 13cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…f6b5backed Yes | 10c | 6,053$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.49 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a54…c062backed Yes | 15c | 6,002$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 4c | 6,000$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…6318backed Yes | 4c | 6,000$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 4c | 5,991$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.64 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 1c | 5,988$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed Yes | 5c | 5,965$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.17 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5898…5028backed Yes | 15c | 5,961$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.46 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…f277backed Yes | 3c | 5,928$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 18cpaid | +179.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…dcf0backed Yes | 4c | 5,627$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d338backed Yes | 10c | 5,508$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 3c | 5,429$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.72 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 12c | 5,360$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 14c | 5,145$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa77e…ab49backed Yes | 5c | 5,048$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 6c | 5,036$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238c…5c20backed Yes | 2c | 5,001$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.39 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.22 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?this page
- Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?Yes won
- Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%?No won
- Will another candidate win the Polish presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.