World Politics · resolved market
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83803364b3bfa1e8d63c994be75dbed0e814506e10c9a2846e8c65c141e5b7cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,780,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $727,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,780,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 2c | 117,305$2,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,674 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 1c | 117,000$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 76,727$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.66 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 0c | 67,980$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.15 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 1c | 57,449$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.39 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…3afcbacked Yes | 3c | 48,541$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.65 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 41,791$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.7 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…ae46backed Yes | 1c | 39,988$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.54 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6e…6254backed Yes | 0c | 39,590$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x332a…c9a2backed Yes | 1c | 30,459$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 1c | 30,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.39 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 0c | 29,977$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.6 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 27,500$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.37 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…42acbacked Yes | 1c | 25,405$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a3…8992backed Yes | 0c | 23,740$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5572…984ebacked Yes | 1c | 23,639$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c6…dba8backed Yes | 0c | 22,500$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c6…01c0backed Yes | 2c | 20,791$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.11 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…9648backed Yes | 1c | 20,262$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.57 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9708…925bbacked Yes | 1c | 19,640$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a1…ec17backed Yes | 1c | 18,489$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 1c | 17,936$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.71 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ad…04a8backed Yes | 1c | 16,936$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…7ce6backed Yes | 1c | 15,566$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1e…f6c8backed Yes | 4c | 15,338$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.16 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 15,218$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 0c | 15,126$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 0c | 13,348$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…1b55backed Yes | 2c | 13,102$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.34 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac9…69cfbacked Yes | 1c | 13,000$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.65 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 4c | 12,982$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.79 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…f58abacked Yes | 1c | 12,383$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e46…4f76backed Yes | 0c | 10,989$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5683…a967backed Yes | 1c | 10,430$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed Yes | 2c | 10,288$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 1c | 10,260$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.06 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…ca08backed Yes | 1c | 9,000$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec9a…dad1backed Yes | 2c | 8,283$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5221…531cbacked Yes | 1c | 8,035$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 1c | 8,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x199c…d1babacked Yes | 1c | 7,692$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6f…6e01backed Yes | 1c | 7,548$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 11cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…d071backed Yes | 1c | 7,487$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.61 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 7,441$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 2c | 7,090$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.25 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d338backed Yes | 3c | 6,872$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ef…4a81backed Yes | 2c | 6,578$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3da…1680backed Yes | 2c | 6,570$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5898…5028backed Yes | 2c | 6,429$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.53 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec1…4b63backed Yes | 1c | 6,300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…75edbacked Yes | 0c | 6,100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…f6b5backed Yes | 2c | 6,053$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.79 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 0c | 6,037$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 5c | 6,006$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.3 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4fe9backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed Yes | 1c | 5,965$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 1c | 5,846$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,733$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 3c | 5,625$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.45 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…91f8backed Yes | 2c | 5,574$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…0d37backed Yes | 2c | 5,439$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.61 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9b…c77abacked Yes | 0c | 5,250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b6…3f65backed Yes | 2c | 5,191$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2a…81c1backed Yes | 0c | 5,155$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8b…a882backed Yes | 1c | 5,145$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +31%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…0e65backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d3…0e8bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 2c | 4,937$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.21 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc68a…59e8backed Yes | 2c | 4,632$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70d9…e451backed Yes | 0c | 4,497$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4311…b111backed Yes | 0c | 4,324$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…2fbdbacked Yes | 3c | 4,265$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.61 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…3819backed Yes | 1c | 4,029$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…5d16backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf814…8bb2backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…771abacked Yes | 1c | 3,901$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 13cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 3,866$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9045…3007backed Yes | 1c | 3,840$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,617$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf383…8b45backed Yes | 0c | 3,447$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc2…6554backed Yes | 1c | 3,429$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc4…3716backed Yes | 1c | 3,413$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f64…2a50backed Yes | 1c | 3,395$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…1e22backed Yes | 0c | 3,364$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4a…171fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,316$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e1…e628backed Yes | 2c | 3,228$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…4461backed Yes | 1c | 3,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9351…db66backed Yes | 6c | 3,119$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.81 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…1c0cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,056$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x833b…daa9backed Yes | 2c | 2,995$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,975$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff0…e4a8backed Yes | 1c | 2,922$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 4c | 2,736$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cb…8e37backed Yes | 1c | 2,616$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…d30abacked Yes | 4c | 2,523$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.86 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a45…b82abacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%?this page
- Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?Yes won
- Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%?No won
- Will another candidate win the Polish presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.