World Politics · resolved market
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6507f3d3c7fbb7ee64028b1a466e76588c30a3149226227b8f21666094fe34c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,294,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,045,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,294,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 513 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 29c | 121,751$35,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86,612.56 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 63c | 89,197$56,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,617 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 32c | 59,517$19,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,317.41 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 28c | 57,603$15,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,732.73 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 39c | 48,654$18,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,783.35 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 35c | 46,725$16,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,359.47 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4c…a61fbacked Yes | 34c | 43,214$14,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,498.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 36c | 40,845$14,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,260.29 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…cd54backed Yes | 32c | 33,126$10,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,586.99 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…3afcbacked Yes | 28c | 31,337$8,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,711.04 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…9648backed Yes | 38c | 30,596$11,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,922.59 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 19c | 30,400$5,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,667 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6b…6027backed Yes | 27c | 27,579$7,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,038.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…ade5backed Yes | 79c | 25,802$20,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,444.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 32c | 21,078$6,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,261.72 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 38c | 20,000$7,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,400 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5895…6265backed Yes | 24c | 19,070$4,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,544.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…67c3backed No | 76c | 17,653$13,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,347.17 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…cfc8backed Yes | 15c | 17,370$2,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,846.62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf735…6157backed Yes | 32c | 16,508$5,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,257.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c6…01c0backed Yes | 26c | 13,736$3,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,191.77 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…6318backed Yes | 55c | 13,493$7,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,004.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…8015backed Yes | 26c | 13,244$3,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,752.3 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ae…9d13backed Yes | 31c | 12,712$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,811.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +293.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…42acbacked Yes | 28c | 12,472$3,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,016.22 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…c4f8backed Yes | 28c | 11,612$3,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,318.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +206.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…7ab3backed Yes | 28c | 11,414$3,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,184.29 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 27c | 10,618$2,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,751.43 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…32b3backed Yes | 27c | 10,589$2,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,747.65 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…1dc6backed Yes | 37c | 10,534$3,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,631.54 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…de47backed Yes | 29c | 10,465$2,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,466.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…dc66backed Yes | 40c | 10,021$4,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,000.77 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…1884backed Yes | 28c | 10,000$2,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,160 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes | 53c | 9,744$5,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,556.54 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 26c | 9,000$2,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,669.99 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 32c | 8,908$2,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,042.94 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 14c | 8,779$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,507.58 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 26c | 8,537$2,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,309.24 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff60…83c0backed Yes | 37c | 8,416$3,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,299.45 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…ca08backed Yes | 27c | 8,333$2,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,048.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x281d…0c73backed Yes | 15c | 8,000$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,814.99 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 30c | 8,000$2,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,629.98 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba5…5158backed Yes | 43c | 7,928$3,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,492.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 32c | 7,700$2,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,218.99 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 26c | 7,615$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,614.89 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 7,562$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.02 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 35c | 7,496$2,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,847.57 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fef…cdcbbacked Yes | 26c | 7,446$1,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,482.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 49c | 7,268$3,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,728.73 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…2264backed Yes | 45c | 7,154$3,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,964.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 27cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 79c | 7,093$5,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,498.89 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…9800backed Yes | 74c | 6,866$5,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,783.08 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 27c | 6,822$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,972.81 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 48c | 6,813$3,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,518.45 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f2…2cd0backed Yes | 29c | 6,602$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,702.07 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 22c | 6,525$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.65 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce5…7c13backed Yes | 35c | 6,400$2,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,185.43 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…f6b5backed Yes | 29c | 6,053$1,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,324.66 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes | 33c | 6,001$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,001.18 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed No | 11c | 6,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed Yes | 26c | 5,965$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,414.65 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes | 28c | 5,940$1,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,262.39 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 50c | 5,725$2,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,885.46 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6441…139ebacked Yes | 31c | 5,704$1,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,949 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc78…55a4backed Yes | 42c | 5,692$2,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,289.29 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…0d37backed Yes | 31c | 5,560$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,859.92 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ca…198bbacked Yes | 25c | 5,514$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,152.78 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 25c | 5,455$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,085.17 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 24c | 5,321$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.96 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2daa…a350backed Yes | 25c | 5,290$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,959.74 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 18c | 5,289$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,358.64 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed No | 12c | 5,257$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.85 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 71c | 5,221$3,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,686.25 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…58dfbacked Yes | 58c | 5,128$2,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,143.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 28c | 4,980$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,582.75 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb504…263bbacked Yes | 24c | 4,852$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,673.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +311.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 69c | 4,805$3,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,336.2 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6f…6e01backed Yes | 16c | 4,503$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,769.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 11cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…83d7backed Yes | 27c | 4,430$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,230.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 51c | 4,400$2,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,171 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 32c | 4,383$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,984.86 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…2fbdbacked Yes | 28c | 4,265$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,085.11 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4a…171fbacked Yes | 26c | 4,107$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,033.03 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 72c | 4,106$2,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.5 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 19c | 4,065$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.9 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…8d51backed No | 7c | 4,059$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.13 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 38c | 4,000$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,480 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed6…6a8dbacked Yes | 25c | 3,933$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,931.04 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed Yes | 43c | 3,913$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,244.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed Yes | 28c | 3,880$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,809.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +173.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 30c | 3,875$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,727.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 24c | 3,809$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,901.77 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed Yes | 67c | 3,694$2,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.57 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe186…a45ebacked Yes | 29c | 3,625$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,567.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 61c | 3,617$2,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.1 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Yes | 48c | 3,569$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,855.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcad2…9fc8backed Yes | 19c | 3,554$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,870.67 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff0…e4a8backed Yes | 25c | 3,502$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,625.88 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 44c | 3,430$1,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,935.31 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1e…0a89backed Yes | 30c | 3,363$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,363.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?this page
- Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?No won
- Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%?No won
- Will another candidate win the Polish presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.