World Politics · resolved market
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a842ad6c44e8c4a0b7f303a0b3eb8422536d38b62de355ef2b0dacf0b88f43e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,337,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,682,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,337,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 702 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 27c | 70,082$18,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,791.07 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 24c | 56,816$13,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,601.2 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ea…62aebacked Yes | 8c | 54,285$4,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,246.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +138.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4c…a61fbacked Yes | 50c | 53,730$27,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,122.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 39c | 38,501$14,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,909.67 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 37,767$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.17 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6b…6027backed Yes | 24c | 35,208$8,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,543.09 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 3c | 33,717$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.4 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…1dc6backed Yes | 30c | 30,234$9,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,159.71 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…3afcbacked Yes | 34c | 28,501$9,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,639.62 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…ee2dbacked Yes | 21c | 27,517$5,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,737.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 26cpaid | +100%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 35c | 25,066$8,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,656.36 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x281d…0c73backed Yes | 20c | 24,412$4,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,935.46 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9841…5189backed Yes | 42c | 23,776$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1c…1bb7backed Yes | 4c | 22,306$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…8015backed Yes | 41c | 22,011$9,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,020.45 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cb…0377backed Yes | 5c | 20,655$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.23 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…9648backed Yes | 30c | 20,557$6,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,099.01 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8834…d285backed Yes | 13c | 20,269$2,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,572.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…8fcbbacked Yes | 2c | 20,262$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.18 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ba…89aebacked Yes | 4c | 20,000$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…49b3backed Yes | 20c | 18,514$3,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,738.35 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 61c | 18,125$11,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,043.71 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf735…6157backed Yes | 35c | 17,043$5,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,970.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7d…7e36backed Yes | 48c | 16,763$8,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,051.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd150…55a6backed Yes | 4c | 16,718$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.08 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…6318backed Yes | 40c | 16,200$6,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,516 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 65c | 16,059$10,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,361.9 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…cd54backed Yes | 43c | 15,413$6,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,554.65 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 60c | 15,026$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,000 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 2c | 14,265$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.74 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…4a76backed Yes | 34c | 14,207$4,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,869 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9968…a104backed Yes | 52c | 14,002$7,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,212.4 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…dc66backed Yes | 41c | 13,582$5,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,560.29 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd303…9c76backed Yes | 47c | 13,000$6,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,110 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…7ab3backed Yes | 32c | 12,990$4,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 77c | 12,959$10,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,010.08 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Yes | 6c | 12,666$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.91 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 43c | 12,500$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,400 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f1…f66fbacked Yes | 57c | 12,220$6,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,986 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 5c | 12,000$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 49c | 11,904$5,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,884.26 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 57c | 11,862$6,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,802.62 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…1b55backed Yes | 40c | 11,849$4,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,726.97 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 50c | 11,725$5,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,914.11 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…28fdbacked Yes | 3c | 11,645$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.6 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c6…01c0backed Yes | 30c | 11,529$3,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,484.4 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…e95cbacked Yes | 67c | 11,385$7,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,684.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +95%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 27c | 11,255$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…1884backed Yes | 37c | 11,124$4,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,165.7 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a15…bf33backed Yes | 44c | 10,975$4,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,863.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…83d7backed Yes | 4c | 10,831$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…257abacked Yes | 28c | 10,717$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 12c | 10,465$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.58 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9b…295abacked Yes | 68c | 10,382$7,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,042.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +191.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…32b3backed Yes | 7c | 10,303$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff60…83c0backed Yes | 46c | 10,295$4,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,684.77 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…62bbbacked Yes | 29c | 10,247$2,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,982.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 60c | 10,133$6,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,098.88 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 53c | 10,000$5,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,316.64 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…1cb2backed Yes | 33c | 9,826$3,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,204.44 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99b0…24c0backed Yes | 3c | 9,586$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 49c | 9,325$4,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,752.7 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2daa…a350backed Yes | 39c | 9,059$3,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,522.14 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 29c | 8,737$2,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,518.02 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c8…6579backed Yes | 6c | 8,730$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 52c | 8,288$4,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,980.45 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes | 44c | 8,100$3,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,552.99 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…6e23backed Yes | 51c | 8,000$4,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,060 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 62c | 7,938$4,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,946.81 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8652…29cbbacked Yes | 19c | 7,856$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 21c | 7,791$1,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.23 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…9187backed Yes | 2c | 7,621$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcad2…9fc8backed Yes | 31c | 7,307$2,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,253.73 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f37…0a9ebacked Yes | 56c | 7,281$4,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,054.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…4fa1backed Yes | 7c | 7,155$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 47c | 6,899$3,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,237.36 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc78…55a4backed Yes | 47c | 6,838$3,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,231.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e91…b586backed Yes | 37c | 6,774$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d4…84a1backed Yes | 50c | 6,346$3,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,154.31 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes | 43c | 5,765$2,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,487.37 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x201e…174cbacked Yes | 53c | 5,694$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed Yes | 3c | 5,668$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.73 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d3…c5fdbacked Yes | 32c | 5,626$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e83…44babacked Yes | 43c | 5,519$2,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,367 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…2d56backed Yes | 37c | 5,441$1,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,988 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 64c | 5,300$3,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.15 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 15c | 5,189$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.11 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Yes | 3c | 5,153$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.57 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142c…275cbacked Yes | 39c | 5,104$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 35c | 5,034$1,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,762.89 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 39c | 5,000$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 67c | 5,000$3,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed Yes | 5c | 4,936$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.52 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 13c | 4,850$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.68 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Yes | 32c | 4,843$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5895…6265backed Yes | 41c | 4,832$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe743…7038backed Yes | 37c | 4,674$1,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.76 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eec…ea07backed Yes | 53c | 4,600$2,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,430.93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?this page
- Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?Yes won
- Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?No won
- Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%?No won
- Will another candidate win the Polish presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.