World Politics · resolved market
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27ddacbfe7dee8504ef1118f268a5b380a5ae41dc8512e759bfefff2c50a82b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,558,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $808,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,558,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 3c | 116,599$3,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,264.45 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…e83fbacked Yes | 1c | 89,566$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 85,756$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.71 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…9648backed Yes | 0c | 65,754$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.03 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 1c | 55,063$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.38 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13f1…f66fbacked Yes | 2c | 54,924$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 41,000$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.89 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 0c | 37,402$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.13 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 1c | 37,044$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.31 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +7.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38cf…1d60backed Yes | 2c | 29,593$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.54 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b1…8625backed Yes | 3c | 29,122$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…3afcbacked Yes | 3c | 24,773$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.98 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac9…69cfbacked Yes | 2c | 23,714$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.4 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…de3dbacked Yes | 4c | 20,142$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2e…9704backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2893…1534backed Yes | 1c | 18,828$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +163.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 2c | 18,591$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.06 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…96edbacked Yes | 1c | 17,606$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.09 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c6…01c0backed Yes | 2c | 16,838$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.36 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2324…c779backed Yes | 2c | 16,140$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…201bbacked Yes | 2c | 15,207$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.08 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 13,992$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…763abacked Yes | 0c | 13,769$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.23 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b15…e717backed Yes | 1c | 13,333$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.33 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ad…bbd2backed Yes | 1c | 13,321$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…4d06backed Yes | 1c | 12,156$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6e…6254backed Yes | 1c | 11,419$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cc…39d8backed Yes | 1c | 10,920$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f0…7322backed Yes | 6c | 10,776$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +379.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 10,413$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.55 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 10,411$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.95 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5816…60a7backed Yes | 2c | 10,341$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.47 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd150…55a6backed Yes | 6c | 10,214$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.97 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd39d…00bcbacked Yes | 2c | 10,092$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.34 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb2…6f2abacked Yes | 3c | 10,004$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…2d56backed Yes | 1c | 9,891$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.04 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e91…b586backed Yes | 2c | 9,688$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 2c | 9,279$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.09 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…375cbacked Yes | 4c | 8,583$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff7…c47fbacked Yes | 3c | 8,543$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc1…1dc3backed Yes | 0c | 8,438$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf141…365fbacked Yes | 2c | 8,233$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ae…a59ebacked Yes | 2c | 7,998$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.4 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a45…b82abacked Yes | 1c | 7,550$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3da…1680backed Yes | 1c | 7,521$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 4c | 7,468$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.34 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…7a73backed Yes | 2c | 7,188$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…b3babacked Yes | 2c | 7,181$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…8ffbbacked Yes | 3c | 7,016$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 8cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2281…34c3backed Yes | 3c | 6,977$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.88 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb9…dff1backed Yes | 4c | 6,957$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 1c | 6,717$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8b…a882backed Yes | 2c | 6,645$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681a…f823backed Yes | 3c | 6,092$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 0c | 6,040$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1e…f6c8backed Yes | 4c | 6,037$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.74 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb937…9d0dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,364$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eec…ea07backed Yes | 1c | 5,261$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…879ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,259$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 5,031$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcb…9fb7backed Yes | 1c | 4,664$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e2…84ddbacked Yes | 1c | 4,571$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…4201backed Yes | 2c | 4,400$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cb…0377backed Yes | 3c | 4,240$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb035…433fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,906$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…0bcfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,795$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…c64bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,612$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4b…17eabacked Yes | 3c | 3,403$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ad…0b88backed Yes | 3c | 3,351$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…2abdbacked Yes | 2c | 3,221$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b27…e283backed Yes | 1c | 3,198$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…4461backed Yes | 1c | 3,125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,122$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc9…9d68backed Yes | 2c | 2,740$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 1c | 2,678$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda79…b3dbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,564$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae5…7517backed Yes | 1c | 2,503$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd03c…45fcbacked Yes | 3c | 2,478$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e0…15cbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,459$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9add…9a45backed Yes | 2c | 2,200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 19cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf383…8b45backed Yes | 1c | 2,143$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5221…531cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,102$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…1021backed Yes | 2c | 2,098$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9b…c77abacked Yes | 3c | 2,094$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac0…f1bfbacked Yes | 3c | 2,087$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x281d…0c73backed Yes | 4c | 2,065$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.96 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07db…b500backed Yes | 3c | 2,045$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d3…0e8bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2daa…a350backed Yes | 3c | 1,907$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…1887backed Yes | 1c | 1,899$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…5d16backed Yes | 1c | 1,741$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c3…65bdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,607$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…f844backed Yes | 2c | 1,588$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…33b5backed Yes | 4c | 1,577$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,558$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…f2c1backed Yes | 3c | 1,482$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc826…c17ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,471$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%?this page
- Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?Yes won
- Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?No won
- Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%?No won
- Will another candidate win the Polish presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.