TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x87d3…0e8b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
70
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: World Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 56 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST4221.4%9 W · 33 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-3.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$99.89
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,476Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$1,475.63
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$90
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$530Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$530
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$26.6
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$24.54
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$3,146Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$3,145.95
Will PAS win a majority of seats in Moldova elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+354.5%+$113.1
Will the Patriotic Electoral Bloc win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$91
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$19
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$82.86
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$540Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+455.6%+$2,460
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$847Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$847.23
Will George Simion win by 6–12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$800
Will George Simion win by 0–6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$860Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$860
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+1,185.3%+$2,775.11
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.01
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$276.83
Will Mircea Geoană win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$830Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$830
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$389Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+800.9%+$3,111.5
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$361Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$360.5
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$823Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$822.5
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+220%+$66
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.5
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
All 11 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.