TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,104,707
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,955,183

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,104,707 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,638 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8795…7544backed Yes19c124,350$23,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,044.079334.4%32 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes9c105,840$9,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,992.31631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae4…9188backed Yes33c98,774$32,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,736.53540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+71.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes17c82,790$13,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,843.025060%30 W · 20 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+131.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Yes31c70,690$21,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,677.681216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-69.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes21c63,066$13,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,336.156119.7%12 W · 49 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0d9…da5ebacked Yes31c57,948$17,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,869.291540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca6…73e3backed Yes35c46,083$16,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,279.19540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes22c42,822$9,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,581.7710127.7%28 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes36c41,171$14,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,731.813444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes21c36,548$7,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,758.799053.3%48 W · 42 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes20c35,144$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,199.756633.3%22 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked Yes7c34,861$2,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,290.734459.1%26 W · 18 L+6.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes30c31,726$9,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,623.743342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe484…a143backed Yes4c30,510$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3501127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-30.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa96b…c5b0backed Yes35c28,611$9,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,982.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3560…1b93backed Yes35c26,578$9,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,235.841526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-40.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3749…7ad0backed Yes42c25,997$10,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,983.39560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed Yes35c25,192$8,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,695.893748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d14…c06dbacked Yes2c24,287$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.4480%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes16c20,940$3,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,255.763135.5%11 W · 20 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid-20.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3b2…d4d4backed Yes4c20,510$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.452123.8%5 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick14cpaid-1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes6c20,503$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277.323225%58 W · 174 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed Yes30c20,039$6,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,031.76944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403614.4%16 W · 345 L-0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes35c19,732$6,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,860.663540%14 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0624…053fbacked Yes36c19,520$7,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,005.47837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes8c19,206$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.824012.5%5 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…68a9backed Yes5c18,746$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.88911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-66.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked Yes12c18,447$2,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,167.872842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa16f…6df1backed Yes6c18,314$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.941233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+60.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c7…cc38backed Yes28c18,100$4,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,977.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad0…6221backed Yes27c18,100$4,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,941.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5c6…0a29backed Yes1c18,079$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09b0…fb79backed Yes27c17,980$4,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,836.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf572…9085backed Yes27c17,875$4,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,772.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0074…a9e8backed Yes15c17,703$2,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,615.42633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes30c17,682$5,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,216.991315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-77.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc39…80d9backed Yes28c17,300$4,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,772.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes10c17,017$1,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,763.856622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes29c16,779$4,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,858.7316612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe689…784ebacked Yes15c16,421$2,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,529.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes9c16,260$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,394.4518530.3%56 W · 129 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b83…9318backed Yes30c16,081$4,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,803.63616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-65.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff2b…527abacked Yes33c15,136$5,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000.61822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Yes28c15,000$4,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,249.98742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x147e…4ababacked Yes21c14,207$2,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,988.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No71c14,183$10,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,154.612345.5%56 W · 67 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes10c13,806$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.476642.4%28 W · 38 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a52…1b08backed Yes30c13,700$4,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,041.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf93…933cbacked Yes26c13,200$3,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,432250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebfd…dd70backed Yes35c12,805$4,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,533.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x310b…67a8backed Yes3c12,803$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.222231.8%7 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick21cpaid-14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes27c12,774$3,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,475.734916.3%8 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes27c12,723$3,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,380.538456%47 W · 37 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+24.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes10c12,623$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.84221.4%9 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-66.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8fd…6b3abacked Yes29c12,569$3,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,583.793745.9%17 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+24.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf48…47eabacked Yes27c12,500$3,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,35010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes14c12,276$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,683.776883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48b0…083ebacked Yes33c12,119$3,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,993.92825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed Yes8c11,500$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.496030%18 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes21c11,094$2,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,345.5918216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbcb…db5fbacked Yes28c10,699$2,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,98630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes7c10,514$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.817932.9%26 W · 53 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-15.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x681d…4bb8backed No63c10,266$6,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,803.03757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick34cpaid+29.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf20…f904backed Yes35c10,206$3,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,606.1440%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No67c10,193$6,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,357.765843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27d…45b1backed Yes25c10,117$2,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,511.491435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb704…dc1ebacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cf…69fdbacked Yes14c10,000$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,370560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a6a…2ed5backed Yes41c10,000$4,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,06010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes8c10,000$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7731811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-48.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x561e…2093backed Yes29c9,931$2,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,831.3240%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c9,572$6,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,800.5288448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x368b…2458backed Yes20c9,120$1,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,786.931741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked Yes31c9,105$2,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,823.172416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-59.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf796…7764backed Yes26c9,100$2,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,348.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bb…98b3backed Yes32c9,002$2,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,865.17742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf371…9812backed Yes26c8,910$2,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,291.633619.4%7 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d8b…14ccbacked Yes16c8,777$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.021625%4 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-55.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes24c8,518$2,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,011.3419742.6%84 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06a2…8015backed Yes30c8,179$2,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,434.413554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe47c…642abacked No68c7,950$5,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,528.1540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-41.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3ce…4c39backed Yes5c7,732$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.96258%2 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-75.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee49…155ebacked Yes3c7,711$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.572842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No62c7,709$4,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,915.2443243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb13e…cf76backed No71c7,000$4,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6bb…9187backed No73c7,000$5,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab69…77f1backed Yes27c6,898$1,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,882.81225%3 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8315…55cfbacked No74c6,800$5,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7682100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes5c6,708$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.424318.6%8 W · 35 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa239…9733backed No71c6,700$4,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,976.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87d3…0e8bbacked Yes22c6,698$1,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,475.634221.4%9 W · 33 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-3.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb01…02e5backed Yes4c6,623$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.7560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+37.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfeb5…1dc6backed Yes6c6,608$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.731833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-29.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6697…9e9fbacked No73c6,600$4,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,768.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7040…81fabacked Yes30c6,483$1,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,971.63560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd741…a353backed No73c6,400$4,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,747.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dc4…483bbacked No73c6,400$4,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7601100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x883b…61f6backed No74c6,400$4,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.