World Politics · resolved market
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the Romanian presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56030c3b4726de62df7d8ffe81f194854e89a3e0804ab1fa8b376a6be6bb3851
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,258,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $547,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,258,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 5.6%5 W · 84 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 85,000$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…c5abbacked Yes | 1c | 58,257$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.45 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 45,299$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.37 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215c…bdfbbacked Yes | 1c | 33,699$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.8 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…f867backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 24,570$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5046…6a3bbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 0c | 17,578$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…2737backed Yes | 1c | 17,400$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +380.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 2c | 15,584$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.31 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…014cbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf121…8680backed Yes | 1c | 13,003$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7215…bd1dbacked Yes | 1c | 12,722$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…0843backed Yes | 0c | 11,206$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes | 0c | 10,225$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,004$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 8,635$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…773bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,812$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -75%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…3199backed Yes | 2c | 7,552$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 1c | 6,600$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d9…b270backed Yes | 1c | 6,557$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d3…0e8bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,394$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 5,682$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…e5ffbacked Yes | 3c | 3,842$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,816$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa758…5979backed Yes | 2c | 3,689$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -82%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc746…cef3backed Yes | 3c | 2,858$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…e693backed Yes | 1c | 2,795$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…b369backed Yes | 1c | 2,641$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,555$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa653…4216backed Yes | 1c | 2,184$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…4fd0backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.89 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67fd…f580backed Yes | 1c | 1,816$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0560…5c5abacked Yes | 1c | 1,690$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…10c8backed Yes | 2c | 1,638$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…9e23backed Yes | 3c | 1,513$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7901…5575backed Yes | 1c | 1,483$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29cd…cbc5backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,029$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 3c | 1,019$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…0a5fbacked Yes | 3c | 507.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 404.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…777bbacked Yes | 6c | 336.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa4…2e79backed Yes | 4c | 261.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marcel Ciolacu win the Romanian presidential election?this page
- Will Ana Birchall win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Anamaria Gavrilă win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Anton Pisaroglu win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Cristian Sima win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Cristian-Vasile Terheș win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Daniel Funeriu win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Diana Șoșoacă win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Hunor Kelemen win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Ilie Bolojan win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will John-Ion Banu-Muscel win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Marcela-Lavinia Șandru win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Mircea Geoană win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Nicolae Ciucă win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?Yes won
- Will Sebastian-Constantin Popescu win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Silviu Predoiu win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Teodor Nițulescu win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.