Will Diana Șoșoacă win the Romanian presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b415e33458d6b6ed66b036067e3ae89ae40ff52881b2dd6eaeb9ef7c1800442

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 19, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $658,991
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $84,818

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $658,991 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes	0c	100,000$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	89	5.6%5 W · 84 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-90.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb81c…424ebacked Yes	0c	92,822$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.82	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c39…a9cbbacked Yes	0c	67,448$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xffe7…89bfbacked Yes	0c	58,742$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.35	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes	0c	31,728$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.73	412	1%4 W · 408 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+171.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56f8…4910backed Yes	0c	24,685$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.37	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x215c…bdfbbacked Yes	1c	17,889$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.7	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+1.8wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x547b…014cbacked Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-75.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes	0c	15,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	513	2.9%15 W · 498 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c5a…3d19backed Yes	1c	4,840$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	-38%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f58…bc49backed Yes	1c	4,086$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	+42.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3f8…9883backed Yes	1c	2,674$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.37	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.4wins	+0.27per pick	13cpaid	+39.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4817…8f8abacked Yes	1c	2,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-65%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3de7…bbb8backed Yes	2c	1,709$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.69	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-2.9wins	-0.12per pick	16cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a6a…bc42backed Yes	1c	1,525$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3612…bd3ebacked Yes	2c	1,251$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c5f…e82ebacked Yes	9c	117.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Diana Șoșoacă win the Romanian presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event