TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,687,663
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,355,214

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,687,663 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcdc4…a880backed Yes0c2,102,609$2,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,102.961618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa275…c758backed Yes0c1,375,000$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,500616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-62.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7bc…9be9backed Yes0c981,105$1,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,531.11330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-53.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe426…9766backed Yes0c868,432$1,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.42944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2ae…6374backed Yes0c737,382$1,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,586.951421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-60.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4364…d4c7backed Yes0c420,907$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0401…2901backed Yes0c400,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3117…0f8fbacked Yes0c370,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-25.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Yes0c200,426$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.58219.5%2 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-78.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003528.6%10 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c167,170$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.684121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3ce…4c39backed Yes0c157,990$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.69258%2 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-75.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d7f…ec46backed Yes0c150,641$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.23137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed Yes0c148,519$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.433930.8%12 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+69%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf743…ac84backed Yes0c134,779$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.782035%7 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-44.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb076…e62dbacked Yes0c119,668$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.841827.8%5 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes1c110,000$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.36895.6%5 W · 84 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-90.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes0c101,422$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.774641.3%19 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007345.2%33 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes0c92,675$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.0310127.7%28 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes0c87,187$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.756119.7%12 W · 49 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes0c85,000$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…c5abbacked Yes0c79,483$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.41352.9%1 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-87.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ac3…9143backed Yes0c78,500$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-78%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a95…6a76backed Yes0c71,695$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.391442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x069d…b532backed Yes0c69,652$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.121612.5%2 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+63.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaa5…e358backed Yes0c56,500$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick22cpaid+60.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes0c56,275$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.551330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick21cpaid-30.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1aa…63cabacked Yes0c53,505$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.01520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-44.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bc4…70eebacked Yes0c51,267$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-22.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b19…698cbacked Yes0c50,001$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd94f…59a7backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+56.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3734…f9dcbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-71.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fad…2055backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa758…5979backed Yes0c45,589$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.46425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick9cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes0c40,650$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.652955.2%16 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfec7…1594backed Yes0c39,000$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1173928.2%11 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes0c35,740$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.481711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-36.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5270…4c8bbacked Yes0c35,000$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.331526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick15cpaid-2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe9…8308backed Yes0c32,700$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.86040%24 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ad…04a8backed Yes0c30,880$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581225%3 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+93.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x779d…c3b9backed Yes0c30,556$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick10cpaid-13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ebd…cb20backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-67.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec9a…dad1backed Yes0c25,578$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001315.4%2 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-50.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c25,124$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.524521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506642.4%28 W · 38 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb3…13e6backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick16cpaid+94.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6385…f892backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e33…cf1cbacked Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+132.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8452…9056backed Yes0c24,997$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.991656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e8b…856ebacked Yes0c24,853$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253925.6%10 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdf…4dbebacked Yes0c24,775$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1952…c5c8backed Yes0c23,333$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9399…e1f8backed Yes0c22,724$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.69333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-33.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e45…70d8backed Yes0c22,500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes0c22,168$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.53342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick34cpaid-10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x547b…014cbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203312.1%4 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-75.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes0c17,965$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9614033.6%47 W · 93 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcca…aebabacked Yes0c17,500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353729.7%11 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f29…dd03backed Yes0c17,311$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606434.4%22 W · 42 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+36.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa376…c67abacked Yes0c16,490$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9488…b5a6backed Yes0c15,501$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1680%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cce…34e0backed Yes1c15,099$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-39.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0103…fc89backed Yes0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb5…71b5backed Yes0c15,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-50.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef1…a513backed Yes0c15,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0b5…1438backed Yes0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick26cpaid+176.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x468d…369dbacked Yes0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-49.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b6b…d4d8backed Yes0c14,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc2e…9704backed Yes0c12,546$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick7cpaid-55.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5895…aababacked Yes0c12,500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes0c12,089$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.271414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-78.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c58…2460backed Yes0c12,081$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e36…aa76backed Yes0c12,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c5a…3d19backed Yes0c11,500$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6825%2 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-38%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd331…c348backed Yes0c11,408$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick12cpaid+76.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf09e…ee74backed Yes0c11,100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-60.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes0c10,866$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.68641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ce8…8edabacked Yes0c10,660$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f8…2d5fbacked Yes0c10,569$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb33…1fe7backed Yes0c10,250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152744.4%12 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+16%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207625%19 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104126.8%11 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac0…f1bfbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+46.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a69…5a45backed Yes1c10,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf371…9812backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203619.4%7 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ee6…6887backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed Yes0c10,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.55538.2%21 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49a6…7049backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8f…97bcbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c8…bf7fbacked Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x732d…95e1backed Yes0c9,567$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.71414.3%2 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick7cpaid+64.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef38…ab9ebacked Yes0c9,110$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.221250%6 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+74%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3d54…713dbacked Yes0c8,925$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+30%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes0c8,534$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1438023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes0c8,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-63.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a56…6baabacked Yes1c7,340$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2466…e4afbacked Yes1c6,714$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.