Will Anamaria Gavrilă win the Romanian presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01c85fb55ff4f1a406c951dfefc03b55c3455ed027e5443ba682efcdaaf1d000

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 19, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,471,675
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $792,618

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,471,675 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes	0c	100,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	89	5.6%5 W · 84 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-90.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffe7…89bfbacked Yes	2c	77,493$1,723 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,722.55	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes	2c	65,404$1,253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,253.07	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes	1c	53,499$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345	513	2.9%15 W · 498 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes	0c	37,593$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.42	412	1%4 W · 408 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+171.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed Yes	0c	21,351$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.7	64	39.1%25 W · 39 L	+3.9wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes	3c	20,685$532 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$532.02	190	27.9%53 W · 137 L	+14.5wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+53%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb18c…3002backed Yes	0c	19,758$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.84	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes	0c	17,406$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.53	452	1.1%5 W · 447 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+156.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x547b…014cbacked Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-75.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9008…773bbacked Yes	1c	10,731$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.1	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-75%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc927…c3d5backed Yes	3c	10,617$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.57	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ec2…bcd2backed Yes	1c	10,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7713…432ebacked Yes	4c	9,296$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.9	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes	2c	8,930$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.78	206	14.6%30 W · 176 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec2a…81c1backed Yes	3c	8,333$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-53%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff2b…527abacked Yes	4c	8,072$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes	1c	7,872$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.74	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes	3c	7,000$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.15	109	28.4%31 W · 78 L	+6.8wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c4…c5abbacked Yes	4c	5,645$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.8	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-87.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8af5…36afbacked Yes	3c	5,612$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.78	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-71.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf189…5c59backed Yes	5c	5,000$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d84…3578backed Yes	2c	4,929$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3560…1b93backed Yes	4c	4,863$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.56	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93c6…d9dbbacked Yes	2c	4,647$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.02	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-42%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x989c…4fd0backed Yes	3c	4,000$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.21	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf371…9812backed Yes	2c	4,000$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de7…bbb8backed Yes	3c	3,981$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.52	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-2.9wins	-0.12per pick	16cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e56…23d6backed Yes	3c	3,915$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.55	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7922…ef61backed Yes	1c	3,510$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.55	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x215c…bdfbbacked Yes	3c	2,817$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.24	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+1.8wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2510…5263backed Yes	4c	2,500$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.22	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4817…8f8abacked Yes	2c	2,109$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.22	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-65%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d57…caeebacked Yes	3c	2,012$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.36	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+1.6wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes	3c	1,976$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+3.2wins	+0.32per pick	48cpaid	+66.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x20e5…3a36backed Yes	3c	1,789$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes	2c	1,674$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.1	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	-3.6wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x555f…012bbacked Yes	1c	1,621$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x732d…95e1backed Yes	2c	1,618$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	7cpaid	+64.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes	3c	1,600$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.4	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7671…8878backed Yes	2c	1,543$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.02	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8486…e4a7backed Yes	4c	1,434$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.78	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,334$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.78	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21dd…5a82backed Yes	5c	1,155$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.64	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bc7…b81cbacked Yes	1c	1,142$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.54	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes	2c	1,135$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.92	69	30.4%21 W · 48 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf269…0460backed Yes	6c	1,001$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3734…f9dcbacked Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-71.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d3…8daabacked Yes	3c	856.06$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3612…bd3ebacked Yes	1c	800$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcad2…9fc8backed Yes	2c	684$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes	3c	517.74$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.37	74	24.3%18 W · 56 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8239…ddd7backed Yes	4c	511.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6a…bc42backed Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98a2…033fbacked Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	32cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2969…e520backed Yes	4c	454.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-75.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e14…1511backed Yes	3c	453.46$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.56	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	+62.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe638…a296backed Yes	4c	400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.93	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf463…a274backed Yes	3c	400$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6d1…33b8backed Yes	3c	392.72$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	35cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a5…a54dbacked Yes	3c	360.15$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.19	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes	4c	313.74$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b1…5614backed Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c1…ffabbacked Yes	3c	300$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e25…0667backed Yes	4c	273.07$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	30cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3172…3265backed Yes	6c	250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.21per pick	45cpaid	+15%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9622…a58dbacked Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-74%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Anamaria Gavrilă win the Romanian presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event