World Politics · resolved market
Will John-Ion Banu-Muscel win the Romanian presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00c220e55ff24400522bc2dc87bcb4441ef5c1fea77185f5203b75ae3e506d6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $423,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $423,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 89 | 5.6%5 W · 84 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…014cbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf371…9812backed Yes | 0c | 11,478$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…bd75backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7e…c09cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 0c | 9,470$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97dd…b190backed Yes | 0c | 8,550$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,767$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will John-Ion Banu-Muscel win the Romanian presidential election?this page
- Will Ana Birchall win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Anamaria Gavrilă win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Anton Pisaroglu win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Cristian Sima win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Cristian-Vasile Terheș win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Daniel Funeriu win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Diana Șoșoacă win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Hunor Kelemen win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Ilie Bolojan win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Marcel Ciolacu win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Marcela-Lavinia Șandru win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Mircea Geoană win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Nicolae Ciucă win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?Yes won
- Will Sebastian-Constantin Popescu win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Silviu Predoiu win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Teodor Nițulescu win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.