Will Cristian Sima win the Romanian presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe343e905d4a805016123652e4975a0bb01461d210c2990c578f53dedf5442012

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 19, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,141,855
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $488,756

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,141,855 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes	0c	100,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	89	5.6%5 W · 84 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-90.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7803…1004backed Yes	1c	63,024$441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441.17	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes	0c	57,000$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	100	14%14 W · 86 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes	0c	42,508$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.95	412	1%4 W · 408 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+171.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0a…e101backed Yes	0c	35,001$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.97	20	20%4 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd67b…1abcbacked Yes	0c	32,370$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.37	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2741…5feebacked Yes	0c	31,410$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.41	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x914d…467ebacked Yes	0c	30,410$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.41	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeec8…3db0backed Yes	0c	20,454$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.91	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefbb…65e8backed Yes	0c	20,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	38	0%0 W · 38 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x547b…014cbacked Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-75.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7265…e943backed Yes	1c	13,574$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x63f3…2bf6backed Yes	1c	11,449$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.1	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes	0c	11,058$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.03	452	1.1%5 W · 447 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+156.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes	1c	11,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	513	2.9%15 W · 498 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes	0c	10,004$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	34	0%0 W · 34 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215c…bdfbbacked Yes	1c	10,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+1.8wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7e7…21a8backed Yes	1c	6,355$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.92	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+1.6wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x665f…2442backed Yes	4c	6,187$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.52	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.30per pick	20cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes	5c	6,087$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.41	206	14.6%30 W · 176 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5548…2a59backed Yes	8c	5,476$431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.64	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes	1c	4,759$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.86	78	6.4%5 W · 73 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-77.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5faa…0f7ebacked Yes	7c	4,549$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.71	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5c0…d4efbacked Yes	5c	4,480$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.99	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c5a…3d19backed Yes	1c	4,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.8	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	-38%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes	0c	3,953$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.13	105	20%21 W · 84 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes	1c	3,262$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.73	51	23.5%12 W · 39 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f58…bc49backed Yes	2c	3,198$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	+42.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked No	9c	2,991$257 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,733.55	49	57.1%28 W · 21 L	+7.8wins	+0.16per pick	41cpaid	+59.4%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x4830…dd27backed Yes	8c	2,411$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29cd…cbc5backed Yes	1c	1,900$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	30	20%6 W · 24 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x817a…e5ffbacked Yes	1c	1,811$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.48	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dec…04f8backed Yes	1c	1,701$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x812f…e6dfbacked Yes	3c	1,700$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.89	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-55.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7215…bd1dbacked Yes	1c	1,525$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.21	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes	5c	822.63$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.03	58	17.2%10 W · 48 L	+3.7wins	+0.06per pick	11cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf69…dd7abacked Yes	8c	722.1$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	664.61$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	1,022	28%286 W · 736 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf269…0460backed Yes	2c	640$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.43	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0d4d…ac0fbacked Yes	5c	463.03$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.16per pick	24cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe38…4207backed Yes	6c	253.22$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.92	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Cristian Sima win the Romanian presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event