TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe62d…a9da

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
67
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Tennis, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 52 out of 100; worst Champions League at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2025, EDT263.8%1 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anamaria Gavrilă win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,253Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,253.07
Will Cristian Sima win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.9
Will Daniel Funeriu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$68.2
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$2,186Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,185.74
Will Mario Grech be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.99
Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$105
Will Christian Lindner be the next Chancellor of Germany?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$61.62
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$122.05
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,094Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,094.24
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$49
Will Chrystia Freeland be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$301.14
Will Luisa González win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$6,104Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,104.18
Will the AfD win more than 26% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$315.69
Will the AfD win less than 20% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$278Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$277.98
Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,548Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,547.95
Will the AfD win between 24% and 26% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$655Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$655
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$629Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$629.08
Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$426Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$425.79
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+2,400%+$7,630.53
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$2,631Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,631.48
Will Frank Baylis be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.73
Will Karina Gould be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$93.26
Will Chrystia Freeland be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.07
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2025, EDT2010%2 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+256.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ATP Toronto – Zverev vs. Cerundolobacked Cerundolo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$42
ATP Toronto – Tiafoe vs. Vukicbacked Vukic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
ATP Toronto – Tien vs. Opelkabacked Opelka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.5
ATP Toronto – Etcheverry vs. Cerundolobacked Etcheverry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$26
Swiss Open: Shevchenko vs. Bublikbacked Shevchenko · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Karen Khachanov win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.1
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.77
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.51
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$53.23
Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.63
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.38
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.99
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.07
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.14
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.07
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 Internazionali BNL d'Italia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$60.59
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 Madrid Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT+6,475.7%+$849.49
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 Madrid Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.02
Will Holger Rune win the 2025 Barcelona Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT+455.6%+$410
All 20 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Sep 8, 2025, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.2
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.55
Will George Russell win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.93
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.45
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.63
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.67
Will George Russel win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.5
All 9 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2025, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Manchester City wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.33
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will another country launch a memecoin in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Solana all time high by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$3,387Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,387.21
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.