World Politics · resolved market
Will the AfD win more than 26% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x706ca93a7e30846da0e799005d2f6af48e34313f21a90670531e41637911c353
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $432,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $381,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $432,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0c0…f9e6backed Yes | 0c | 74,096$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 26,142$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.34 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 16,886$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.74 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 15,696$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes | 4c | 7,822$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.69 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24c…74a6backed Yes | 10c | 7,385$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…0594backed Yes | 6c | 7,194$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebf…2459backed Yes | 8c | 6,231$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…4eefbacked Yes | 1c | 5,491$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…d8b0backed Yes | 5c | 5,095$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.34 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c17…953fbacked Yes | 12c | 5,064$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1330…38a1backed Yes | 6c | 4,655$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8c…b87cbacked Yes | 8c | 4,436$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…84f9backed Yes | 4c | 4,330$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ef…ceb9backed Yes | 11c | 4,097$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba8…61b7backed Yes | 4c | 3,667$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.48 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x323b…cf8dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,573$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b51…9c96backed Yes | 6c | 3,309$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb17…5c14backed Yes | 5c | 2,914$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 2,735$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.36 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f5…b2a0backed Yes | 4c | 2,051$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa293…2919backed Yes | 5c | 1,675$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.38 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x857c…dde1backed Yes | 5c | 1,652$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,600$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4391…61d8backed Yes | 7c | 1,484$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…6931backed Yes | 7c | 1,452$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d2…6dc4backed Yes | 1c | 1,350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,319$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a1f3backed Yes | 7c | 1,288$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,235$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5af2…4443backed Yes | 4c | 1,210$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…a63bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,164$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…e367backed Yes | 4c | 1,152$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 4c | 1,151$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 7c | 1,151$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b52…7e26backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4022…d049backed Yes | 7c | 1,071$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…1cfebacked Yes | 4c | 1,039$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…db1dbacked Yes | 5c | 960.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…2983backed Yes | 5c | 880.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0d…f553backed Yes | 6c | 840.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b12…a440backed Yes | 4c | 826.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 7c | 793$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 657.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b27…03b8backed Yes | 5c | 599.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedb…3de3backed Yes | 7c | 555.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Yes | 5c | 502.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…74efbacked Yes | 4c | 486.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ca…3a5dbacked Yes | 6c | 467.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd02a…db9cbacked Yes | 4c | 448.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…bf9dbacked Yes | 4c | 440.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 7c | 421.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa329…cd30backed Yes | 5c | 415.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked Yes | 5c | 400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…7dd5backed Yes | 4c | 349.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6600…33b5backed Yes | 4c | 348.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0650…12dfbacked Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22f…2702backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 7c | 258$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…2af2backed Yes | 7c | 250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb67e…b77bbacked Yes | 4c | 227.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 5c | 223.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…42debacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x408c…34f9backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde43…57e7backed Yes | 7c | 157.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27af…6ec8backed Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the AfD win more than 26% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German election?Yes won
- Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win between 24% and 26% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win less than 20% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.