World Politics · resolved market
Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12c486d0a004da8f1749e472ab80f63d27ec7a2bd1c78f0e436f56222ee0ee63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $610,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $526,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $610,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 2c | 42,806$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.01 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf24c…74a6backed Yes | 3c | 41,733$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.97 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 39,676$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.7 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 34,912$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.06 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes | 7c | 22,615$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.95 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 1c | 21,467$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.76 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4569…c0d3backed Yes | 0c | 12,504$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…84f9backed Yes | 13c | 11,316$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 3c | 10,575$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.05 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df0…48f0backed Yes | 23c | 10,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,299.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5c…5731backed Yes | 3c | 7,492$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf817…d678backed Yes | 2c | 7,336$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 12c | 6,814$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.83 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f82…c400backed Yes | 1c | 6,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf54…8771backed Yes | 2c | 6,135$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 22c | 5,227$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.36 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed Yes | 32c | 5,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc122…731fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,913$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 3c | 3,801$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 22c | 3,735$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.92 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked Yes | 5c | 3,576$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -54%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x323b…cf8dbacked Yes | 19c | 3,455$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 18c | 3,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b51…9c96backed Yes | 22c | 2,722$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…870cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,527$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d2…6dc4backed Yes | 4c | 2,482$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668f…d623backed Yes | 2c | 2,473$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 4c | 2,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8c…b87cbacked Yes | 22c | 2,066$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 19c | 2,050$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.5 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ef…ceb9backed Yes | 25c | 2,033$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x857c…dde1backed Yes | 22c | 2,015$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…1cfebacked Yes | 24c | 1,999$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.34 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb683…fecdbacked Yes | 19c | 1,500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…51cbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,420$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…d8b0backed Yes | 33c | 1,398$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.24 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 17c | 1,380$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.14 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c5…d7d6backed Yes | 2c | 1,343$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 30c | 1,300$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.5 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…28d5backed Yes | 20c | 1,285$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 4c | 1,283$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa329…cd30backed Yes | 19c | 1,277$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a77…496fbacked No | 78c | 1,235$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,233$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7144…7b6bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,122$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3c…93f1backed Yes | 18c | 1,084$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf48…034cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,075$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…3a28backed Yes | 25c | 1,014$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…3352backed Yes | 30c | 1,007$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abe…bdccbacked Yes | 20c | 1,001$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +261.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes | 24c | 999.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 77c | 935.63$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.72 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -11.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 5c | 824.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 70c | 813.46$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.58 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…3b89backed Yes | 25c | 788.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa293…2919backed Yes | 23c | 748.59$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.58 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 22c | 700$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa479…b67cbacked Yes | 22c | 691.4$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440e…81e4backed Yes | 22c | 685.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Yes | 9c | 672.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 75c | 663.98$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.2 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2668…8113backed Yes | 5c | 656.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…db7bbacked Yes | 2c | 643.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked Yes | 2c | 625$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 531.43$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…e33fbacked Yes | 2c | 529.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…e7cabacked No | 76c | 528.36$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.36 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…a45bbacked Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8769…48ecbacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f0…987abacked Yes | 21c | 494.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 22c | 477$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.94 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 26c | 470.92$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6b…424ebacked Yes | 22c | 445.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 22c | 429.72$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 22c | 424.63$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…c4fabacked Yes | 23c | 417.78$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f52…36bfbacked Yes | 30c | 410.54$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd41e…881dbacked Yes | 24c | 409.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 22c | 394.55$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.41 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…4992backed No | 77c | 389.89$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +67%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…1440backed Yes | 26c | 382.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…e367backed Yes | 34c | 378.87$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…8258backed Yes | 27c | 371.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 29c | 365.35$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.65 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37e1…3bc9backed Yes | 3c | 339$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…59c6backed Yes | 6c | 337.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5397…c5eabacked No | 70c | 326.71$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb35d…e2debacked Yes | 21c | 310.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 21c | 302.17$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6308…36a9backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe588…7397backed Yes | 21c | 279.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…bef6backed Yes | 32c | 269.02$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb0…f435backed Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…2d54backed Yes | 20c | 241.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 25c | 240$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German election?Yes won
- Will the AfD win between 24% and 26% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win less than 20% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win more than 26% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.