World Politics · resolved market
Will the AfD win less than 20% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98b0f0dd952b974cb60b5a7aef5e26465b655e4fd18a2ffee402f48bd0377dea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $550,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $420,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $550,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d6b…3fc9backed Yes | 0c | 66,104$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…92febacked Yes | 0c | 31,033$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 0c | 24,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes | 1c | 23,934$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.98 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 18c | 17,916$3,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,211.95 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked Yes | 22c | 16,581$3,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,659.34 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…1181backed Yes | 59c | 14,029$8,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,290.88 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 11,901$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.9 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa33…372ebacked Yes | 0c | 11,820$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 16c | 8,174$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.23 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 7,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b68…4c35backed Yes | 0c | 5,416$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…f289backed Yes | 16c | 5,326$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…3567backed Yes | 20c | 5,074$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 21c | 4,517$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.08 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 4,341$3,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.07 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed6…6a8dbacked Yes | 24c | 4,179$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.07 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 2c | 3,555$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a4…14a1backed Yes | 1c | 3,463$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 29c | 3,313$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.61 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a77…496fbacked Yes | 20c | 3,196$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 22c | 3,138$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.13 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…56b9backed Yes | 2c | 3,129$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd5…cf04backed No | 80c | 2,300$1,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 23c | 2,153$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.35 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed Yes | 11c | 2,122$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.83 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 56c | 2,057$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.69 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked Yes | 61c | 1,982$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.55 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 25c | 1,869$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.99 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,867$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.15 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 18c | 1,848$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.54 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 47c | 1,800$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.99 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 26c | 1,561$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.6 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 20c | 1,499$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.77 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…c313backed Yes | 19c | 1,481$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 1c | 1,456$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 51c | 1,440$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.54 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…913bbacked Yes | 68c | 1,440$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.94 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed Yes | 22c | 1,391$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 19c | 1,300$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.15 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,208$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.88 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,153$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 18c | 1,016$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.07 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd653…ba9abacked No | 79c | 1,014$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…7e3bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 20c | 999.97$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.99 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked Yes | 1c | 954.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 51c | 932.75$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 19c | 900$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.86 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed Yes | 23c | 876.99$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.71 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 25c | 804.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5397…c5eabacked No | 55c | 799.99$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe05e…1ab8backed Yes | 20c | 739.06$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.01 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes | 40c | 710$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4312…01debacked Yes | 22c | 700$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 63c | 686.7$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.68 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 44c | 655.47$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.13 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 14c | 571.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23e7…9669backed No | 74c | 537.85$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…51cbbacked Yes | 17c | 522.18$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8588…de5ebacked No | 61c | 500.63$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 50c | 500$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked Yes | 5c | 473.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1511…ce9fbacked Yes | 21c | 466.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 21c | 441.2$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.65 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 22c | 437.85$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 22c | 400.94$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked No | 75c | 390.3$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f82…c400backed Yes | 26c | 384.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 22c | 381.65$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes | 22c | 346.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.88 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 55c | 346.25$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.44 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 20c | 341.87$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed Yes | 49c | 326.4$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes | 30c | 319.01$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.86 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes | 19c | 310.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 22c | 308$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…082cbacked Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…a018backed Yes | 58c | 278.33$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Yes | 19c | 268.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a54…50fdbacked Yes | 28c | 267.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…5824backed Yes | 20c | 261.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2395…c324backed No | 34c | 255$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…6a84backed Yes | 20c | 250.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 69c | 250$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a1…5f52backed Yes | 69c | 242.9$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956f…e875backed Yes | 67c | 242.5$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.3 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9308…e2f5backed Yes | 21c | 232.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…8258backed Yes | 24c | 229.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815b…5ef7backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…7b5ebacked No | 78c | 225$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bac…f238backed Yes | 24c | 220$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Yes | 24c | 207.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…8d7ebacked Yes | 24c | 205.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 20c | 197.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the AfD win less than 20% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German election?Yes won
- Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win between 24% and 26% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win more than 26% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.