TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6711…7d95

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
98
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 58 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2025, EDT2429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-40%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Pope be from Europe?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$134.85
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Government coalition formed within 100 days of German election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$48
Will the CDU/CSU win by 8-10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$53.95
Will the CDU/CSU win by 10-12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$66
Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.99
Will the CDU/CSU win 35-40% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+193.4%+$131.84
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$74
Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+97.9%+$98.96
Will the AfD win less than 20% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$46
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$151.7
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$120.19
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+49%+$115.07
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$66
Will The Left wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$62
Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST+59.2%+$88.73
Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$152
Will RN receive over 31% of votes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2024, EDT+29.9%+$23
Will the CDU/CSU receive more than 30% of votes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$52.99
Will Grune receive more than 14% of votes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2024, EDT+88.7%+$47
Will the SPD receive more than 15% of votes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$33
All 24 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 22, 2025, EDT1553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick34cpaid+62.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$144
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+488.2%+$83.17
Another US military action against Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+96%+$119.52
Elon out of Trump administration before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$118
Trump cuts taxes in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$88
Will Trump impose tariffs on the EU in the first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$66
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. before April? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$28.72
Will Donald Trump sign 20-24 executive orders in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$38
Will Donald Trump sign 15-19 executive orders in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
Will Donald Trump sign 10-14 executive orders in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
Will Donald Trump sign less than 28 executive orders in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Michelle Obama attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+233.3%+$233.1
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+525%+$525
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Kamala flips a 2020 Trump state?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+66.7%+$66.67
All 15 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$160
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$54
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$142
Will Powell say "Anchored" 3+ times during September press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$138
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.7
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$84
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$338Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+47.9%+$162
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$308Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$92
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$100.1
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+47.1%+$47.06
Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+43.9%+$43.88
Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$100
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-58.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$61
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.52
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.36
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+100%+$100
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+65.3%+$79
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$17.45
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$13.99
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+33.3%+$33.33
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$100
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$49.84
Israel ground offensive in Rafah by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$21
All 12 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will between 12 and 15 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$17.83
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$98.04
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST+73.3%+$73.28
2024 September hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT+25%+$25
August temperature increase greater than 1.29°C?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$100.1
August temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29°C?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$49.92
August temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24°C?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$49.8
2024 August hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$100
Will 2024 have the hottest April on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$19
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2024, EDT520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid+81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 15, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
F1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+130.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$88
Bitcoin all time high by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+183.3%+$129.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT+26.6%+$26.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tottenham Hotspur win the UEFA Europa League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$87.33
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.