Movies · resolved market
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79f846da98b7a015b9f60e9ac7623bb5abc8f3e20e93da5d5fcc0cf58d5a3fd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $220,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $211,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 12,876$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 13c | 8,793$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.71 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 5c | 7,410$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.46 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab64…d070backed Yes | 17c | 5,329$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 3,214$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 7c | 2,975$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 4c | 2,692$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.28 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…1b79backed Yes | 5c | 2,047$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 25c | 2,000$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.98 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 19c | 2,000$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 39cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…1bcbbacked Yes | 18c | 1,845$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48b…b617backed Yes | 6c | 1,791$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x716a…f6cfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,623$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadc4…9e02backed Yes | 22c | 1,321$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…f7d0backed Yes | 9c | 1,247$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4720…28adbacked Yes | 5c | 1,176$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a9…ba84backed Yes | 11c | 1,147$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bd…124dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,142$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,138$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.66 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 10c | 1,123$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…1786backed Yes | 4c | 1,117$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd7…5863backed Yes | 7c | 1,116$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91f…e659backed Yes | 40c | 1,115$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad5…ac2ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,048$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f1…a6c8backed Yes | 5c | 1,030$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd9…79a9backed Yes | 10c | 1,021$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 1c | 1,015$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce1…c160backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23a6…9347backed Yes | 8c | 985.11$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…44c7backed Yes | 15c | 940$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed Yes | 19c | 916.9$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 75c | 849.98$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ee…fc06backed No | 22c | 800$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +545.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34f7…603abacked Yes | 15c | 793.25$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…ebb0backed Yes | 13c | 782.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf178…07acbacked Yes | 52c | 772.82$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f91…4d3bbacked Yes | 6c | 769.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa939…adf2backed Yes | 8c | 738.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 17c | 727.77$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.67 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…6c64backed Yes | 21c | 717.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba6…c060backed Yes | 75c | 710$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecf…c70bbacked Yes | 14c | 700.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed Yes | 14c | 691.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2042…6694backed Yes | 15c | 680.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa85…c1a7backed Yes | 12c | 666.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 5c | 663.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…65d2backed Yes | 16c | 639.13$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xface…4663backed Yes | 4c | 636.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fe…25e2backed Yes | 8c | 617.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 20c | 599.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 13c | 591.02$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 16c | 562.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -85%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e10…5b57backed Yes | 9c | 546.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 528.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf731…f820backed Yes | 17c | 518.85$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 42c | 500$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee2…93fdbacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a3…02aabacked Yes | 25c | 499.96$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…fe0fbacked Yes | 11c | 499.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e8…ac29backed Yes | 15c | 492.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…9311backed Yes | 14c | 476.61$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…804dbacked Yes | 7c | 471.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…7a92backed Yes | 11c | 454.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x895e…609fbacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…24f5backed Yes | 22c | 447.85$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 77c | 403.2$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Yes | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…c475backed Yes | 15c | 396.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe11f…9a86backed Yes | 15c | 381.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e00…4784backed Yes | 5c | 376.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 13c | 370.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb46…9c71backed Yes | 14c | 349.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f2…e000backed Yes | 23c | 344.89$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5740backed Yes | 15c | 336.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 11c | 325.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc543…ed07backed Yes | 16c | 317.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0c…f772backed Yes | 33c | 306.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b63…4b44backed No | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.15 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +67%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…9d2fbacked Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe445…655dbacked Yes | 6c | 297.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Yes | 14c | 297.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e77…32fabacked Yes | 17c | 296.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa129…6de9backed Yes | 17c | 295.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…c206backed Yes | 12c | 294.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 12c | 288.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…3e7dbacked Yes | 17c | 287.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4735…bf9bbacked Yes | 4c | 287.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb7…73cbbacked Yes | 4c | 279.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…dbe0backed Yes | 12c | 258.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e0…8928backed Yes | 8c | 255.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9e…c60abacked Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4a…621bbacked Yes | 12c | 246.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 34c | 240.42$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.68 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked No | 75c | 235$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…0bd6backed Yes | 20c | 205.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked Yes | 69c | 205$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.45 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb057…f818backed Yes | 6c | 201.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…0285backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…c7d6backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?this page
- Another actor announced as next James Bond actor?Yes won
- Cosmo Jarvis announced as next James Bond?No won
- Damson Idris announced as next James Bond?No won
- Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?No won
- James Norton announced as next James Bond?No won
- Rege-Jean Page announced as next James Bond?No won
- Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.