Movies · resolved market
Another actor announced as next James Bond actor?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x278914894a4377e6c9aebe8372ce8e797d1c4f0f594d66667d25cfc9ae225a63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 1c | 6,949$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 27c | 2,160$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.4 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 9c | 2,122$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.45 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…2a8dbacked No | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7a…7a7cbacked Yes | 73c | 1,982$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaad…a862backed No | 11c | 1,902$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 80c | 1,625$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.33 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 29c | 1,328$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.58 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 1,208$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.24 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ee…fc06backed Yes | 12c | 1,055$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +545.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd7…5863backed No | 28c | 1,028$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 18c | 984.01$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.51 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…1b79backed No | 10c | 755.47$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.27 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed No | 20c | 752.37$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf928…60d2backed No | 28c | 691.83$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d50…c6d3backed No | 38c | 658.16$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 61c | 587$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.16 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 66c | 585.71$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.86 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6255…a005backed No | 16c | 579.76$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed Yes | 79c | 514.49$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 24c | 500.28$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 19c | 410.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…201bbacked Yes | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a3…02aabacked No | 31c | 400$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 25c | 391.15$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.81 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed No | 13c | 390.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf178…07acbacked No | 39c | 302.46$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…e838backed Yes | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed No | 37c | 280$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 17c | 279.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…ccbabacked No | 18c | 275$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f7…0d6fbacked No | 22c | 211.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 25c | 201.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf84c…9262backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91f…e659backed No | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0946…bf56backed No | 44c | 193.18$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 11c | 172.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…d129backed No | 34c | 160$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…c206backed No | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6b…f255backed No | 17c | 157.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…6d1dbacked Yes | 78c | 124.22$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…0d0ebacked No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…6600backed Yes | 75c | 103.32$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…8805backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…3a64backed No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d25…4e7cbacked No | 22c | 89.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fa…f1f3backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8259…bd18backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e12…141ebacked No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…d16dbacked No | 18c | 65.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc491…4f2ebacked Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6045…bec8backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1c…043cbacked Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1dc…ed1bbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 78c | 45.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbab3…8470backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…a1f1backed Yes | 51c | 44.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…a22cbacked Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97d2…e372backed Yes | 78c | 28.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…24aabacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd7…d98bbacked Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…b472backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe85…dd86backed No | 61c | 19.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 75c | 19.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another actor announced as next James Bond actor?this page
- Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?No won
- Cosmo Jarvis announced as next James Bond?No won
- Damson Idris announced as next James Bond?No won
- Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?No won
- James Norton announced as next James Bond?No won
- Rege-Jean Page announced as next James Bond?No won
- Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.