Movies · resolved market
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf404052387b0612112823ad31ca9572150cce046590c61b6c98792eb7b264ed1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $329,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $271,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $329,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd425…1810backed Yes | 4c | 104,339$3,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,651.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 22,614$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 6,646$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 8c | 6,281$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.07 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,865$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 4,709$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.93 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 4,315$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa48b…b617backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 1c | 3,300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb46…9c71backed Yes | 6c | 2,678$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…1b79backed Yes | 2c | 2,647$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…d2f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 9c | 1,920$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.25 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd530…725cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,897$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9091…bba5backed Yes | 9c | 1,350$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 4c | 1,289$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -85%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34f7…603abacked Yes | 4c | 1,251$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fac…574ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,007$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x359a…deacbacked Yes | 5c | 956.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c7…118dbacked Yes | 5c | 949.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf8…8d46backed Yes | 3c | 750.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e12…141ebacked Yes | 2c | 688.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 5c | 666.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e00…4784backed Yes | 3c | 636.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 5c | 624.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a33…2ba9backed Yes | 5c | 612.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a79…5adebacked Yes | 4c | 595.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…779dbacked Yes | 10c | 519.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3210…0fc4backed Yes | 5c | 505$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…2a8dbacked Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f30…6b5cbacked Yes | 5c | 499.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed Yes | 5c | 498.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f22…d7d8backed Yes | 5c | 421.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1afe…5e3fbacked Yes | 3c | 406.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…cfc5backed Yes | 4c | 399.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86c…daffbacked Yes | 5c | 395.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed Yes | 4c | 385.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…24bfbacked Yes | 3c | 376.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a97…dc6cbacked Yes | 8c | 370.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 4c | 365.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c2…e2d1backed Yes | 5c | 350$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf650…577fbacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…5f49backed Yes | 7c | 294.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0e…65e2backed Yes | 11c | 237.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7b…9374backed Yes | 10c | 220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6705…cf71backed Yes | 6c | 220$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb25…a21dbacked Yes | 10c | 208.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…6949backed Yes | 10c | 202.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes | 5c | 200.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 12c | 192.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa939…adf2backed Yes | 11c | 185.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf927…0667backed Yes | 24c | 121$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…294fbacked Yes | 10c | 114.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…e35dbacked Yes | 10c | 101.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6d…ec40backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…4afdbacked Yes | 22c | 90.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6863…f17bbacked No | 75c | 53.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796c…a470backed No | 80c | 13.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?this page
- Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?No won
- Another actor announced as next James Bond actor?Yes won
- Cosmo Jarvis announced as next James Bond?No won
- Damson Idris announced as next James Bond?No won
- James Norton announced as next James Bond?No won
- Rege-Jean Page announced as next James Bond?No won
- Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.