TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5e00…4784

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
37
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: World Politics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 55 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+78.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Yoon in jail before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$15.23
Yoon in jail before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 5% and 8% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$132
Will Kim Moon-soo win more than 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+814.8%+$529.64
Will Kim Moon-soo win between 30% and 35% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Lee Jun-seok win less than 2% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$42
Will Kim Moon-soo win between 25% and 30% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$110
Will Kim Moon-soo win between 35% and 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$205
Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.8
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+1,489.8%+$1,191.83
Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 65% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$57.65
South Korean President impeached in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST+58.9%+$70.72
All 17 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-48.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
James Norton announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Cosmo Jarvis announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $52-58m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$10
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+514.8%+$102.95
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $72-80m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$20
'Mufasa' vs. 'Sonic 3' opening weekend box office?backed Mufasa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$90
Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70-79?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$10
Will "Mufasa: The Lion King" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60-69?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$10
All 12 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+217.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Napoli win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT+535.3%+$107.06
Will Atalanta win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$28.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Syria hold national elections before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.