TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Kim Moon-soo win more than 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,384,007
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,469,629

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,384,007 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 310 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd43c…04e8backed No10c100,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.32per pick31cpaid+63.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed No62c81,725$50,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,389.672626.9%7 W · 19 L-6.2wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-60.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes40c58,698$23,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,135.4543243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8861…eed6backed No70c40,067$28,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,039.112433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1281…8d51backed No37c39,889$14,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,634.713537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-39.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed Yes38c33,037$12,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,5522250%11 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+30.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes61c31,591$19,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,370.4811247.3%53 W · 59 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes30c31,296$9,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,907.091915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-57.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84f8…d7bdbacked No69c20,091$13,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,777.661526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Yes33c18,648$6,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,450.32837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick17cpaid+202.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed No59c18,000$10,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,594.610122.8%23 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x356a…17e7backed No66c17,803$11,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,686.931625%4 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+38.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes38c17,784$6,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,101.1616535.8%59 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…65e2backed Yes46c16,284$7,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,862.321637.5%6 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+105%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2876…c4b2backed Yes24c14,522$3,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,031.121428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick15cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfe3…73c4backed No44c14,289$6,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,352.972552%13 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc9d…4cc1backed No15c14,064$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,066.46616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce82…b52ebacked Yes19c13,436$2,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,944.381735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x697f…8705backed Yes43c12,844$5,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,271.93875%6 W · 2 L+4.0wins+0.50per pick25cpaid+316.2%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed Yes27c12,772$3,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,314.595339.6%21 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+31%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa667…b6f7backed No68c12,708$8,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,588.621915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-77.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x607c…51dfbacked No1c12,562$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked Yes19c11,628$2,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,390.252638.5%10 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+143.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7f6…13d9backed Yes40c11,331$4,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,774.792040%8 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x481a…d1e6backed Yes30c11,187$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,827.56714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed Yes80c10,042$7,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,046.411346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0192…7f11backed Yes33c9,757$3,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,563.73728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick16cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No71c8,983$6,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,36548224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x832f…ef80backed No31c8,747$2,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,736.013212.5%4 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-76.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes65c8,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8008640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10bd…3a02backed No73c7,939$5,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,758.221526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes34c7,800$2,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,18725337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No2c7,636$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.786883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes17c7,031$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,816.4610928.4%31 W · 78 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf18d…9863backed Yes27c6,901$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,070.97816.7%13 W · 65 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe529…e7b1backed Yes44c6,875$2,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,878.082937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No72c6,874$4,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,962.9854934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb976…c8acbacked Yes38c6,873$2,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,278.98812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid-66.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes66c6,669$4,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,277.689053.3%48 W · 42 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x234b…9f7ebacked No66c6,371$4,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,227.1430%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f8d…6835backed Yes35c6,300$2,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,072.461030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-26.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes49c6,172$2,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,176.623250%16 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed Yes76c6,105$4,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,443.8620538%78 W · 127 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No66c6,040$3,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,963.1612345.5%56 W · 67 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9a8…3592backed Yes20c6,017$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,816.56850%4 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+411.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x919a…23b4backed Yes14c5,971$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,159.981323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+206.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe677…43a2backed Yes13c5,843$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,093.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+289.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0daf…662bbacked Yes24c5,530$1,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,211.29119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-61.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7e…3e1dbacked Yes51c5,401$2,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,634.693141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes52c5,211$2,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,485.986648.5%32 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes32c5,174$1,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,526.498330.1%25 W · 58 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7616…69eebacked Yes17c5,015$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,138.095431.5%17 W · 37 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes68c5,000$3,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,593.5814834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d3a…bbf4backed Yes56c4,839$2,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,130.631040%4 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4790…0382backed Yes51c4,751$2,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,341.771154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+70.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed No5c4,550$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.066238.7%24 W · 38 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+102.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No43c4,000$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7207650%38 W · 38 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x90e0…c12dbacked No78c3,882$3,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,040.075232.7%17 W · 35 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-36.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked No33c3,709$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.433318.2%6 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes30c3,600$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,534.1124736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0607…8bc8backed Yes51c3,498$1,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,726.072317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-66.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb56b…a2d2backed Yes25c3,469$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,611.652030%6 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick13cpaid+36.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e13…56d0backed Yes15c3,314$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,814.34450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+97.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes65c3,300$2,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.7110331.1%32 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c37…92a4backed No71c3,000$2,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1305238.5%20 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x477a…db7cbacked Yes56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3201428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick18cpaid-20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes65c2,999$1,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.6511853.4%63 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8bc…33c6backed Yes72c2,960$2,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.184052.5%21 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff49…69f5backed Yes13c2,830$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,447.641127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick10cpaid+235.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa9a…de87backed Yes37c2,819$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,763.021330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd4…2870backed Yes30c2,785$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,942.631040%4 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f15…f474backed No5c2,759$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed No75c2,746$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,066.136225.8%16 W · 46 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x621c…907ebacked Yes12c2,672$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,349.071435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+78.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51e9…c658backed Yes11c2,631$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,341.582231.8%7 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick21cpaid+94.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes1c2,530$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,504.867225%18 W · 54 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+262.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes52c2,419$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.299627.1%26 W · 70 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa072…5353backed No75c2,300$1,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7252030%6 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-6.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed No9c2,260$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.612920.9%27 W · 102 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes41c2,227$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.087932.9%26 W · 53 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-15.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes32c2,206$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,510.683234.4%11 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9b3…4369backed Yes23c2,199$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,688.29850%4 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+72.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x24f7…a542backed Yes47c2,193$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d57…a418backed Yes27c2,132$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,564.251520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf919…4b10backed No72c2,111$1,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.222524%6 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-38.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x543a…f2cfbacked No60c2,101$1,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.062240.9%9 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+47.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a1e…714ebacked No45c2,007$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.17520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-62.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf929…2487backed Yes74c1,978$1,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.44540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ab…b8b4backed Yes49c1,793$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.23771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c71…dce9backed Yes17c1,778$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,478.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+79.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x624d…d225backed No62c1,762$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ba5…5158backed Yes70c1,745$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.07560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d1a…53babacked Yes19c1,739$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.13683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick46cpaid+93.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd241…2a86backed Yes40c1,700$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,024333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed No53c1,652$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.575525.5%14 W · 41 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a57…493ebacked Yes37c1,634$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.82650%13 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes38c1,600$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9868456%47 W · 37 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+24.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes27c1,600$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.996229%18 W · 44 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Yes65c1,550$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.12458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+75%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes61c1,534$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.443938.5%15 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+29.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.