World Politics · resolved market
Will Kim Moon-soo win more than 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5858502a7f850fecf999b93f2595e5eefa758634cf0506f4047de5ff83ace7af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,384,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,469,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,384,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 310 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed No | 10c | 100,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.32per pick | 31cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…9791backed No | 62c | 81,725$50,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,389.67 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 40c | 58,698$23,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,135.45 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…eed6backed No | 70c | 40,067$28,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,039.11 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…8d51backed No | 37c | 39,889$14,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,634.71 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca8…1a39backed Yes | 38c | 33,037$12,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,552 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 61c | 31,591$19,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,370.48 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 30c | 31,296$9,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,907.09 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…d7bdbacked No | 69c | 20,091$13,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,777.66 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Yes | 33c | 18,648$6,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,450.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +202.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 59c | 18,000$10,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,594.6 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…17e7backed No | 66c | 17,803$11,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,686.93 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 38c | 17,784$6,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,101.16 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…65e2backed Yes | 46c | 16,284$7,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,862.32 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +105%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2876…c4b2backed Yes | 24c | 14,522$3,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,031.12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 44c | 14,289$6,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,352.97 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9d…4cc1backed No | 15c | 14,064$2,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,066.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce82…b52ebacked Yes | 19c | 13,436$2,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,944.38 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x697f…8705backed Yes | 43c | 12,844$5,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,271.93 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.50per pick | 25cpaid | +316.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 27c | 12,772$3,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,314.59 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +31%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…b6f7backed No | 68c | 12,708$8,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,588.62 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…51dfbacked No | 1c | 12,562$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked Yes | 19c | 11,628$2,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,390.25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…13d9backed Yes | 40c | 11,331$4,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,774.79 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481a…d1e6backed Yes | 30c | 11,187$3,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,827.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 80c | 10,042$7,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,046.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0192…7f11backed Yes | 33c | 9,757$3,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,563.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 71c | 8,983$6,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,365 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832f…ef80backed No | 31c | 8,747$2,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,736.01 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 65c | 8,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10bd…3a02backed No | 73c | 7,939$5,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,758.22 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 34c | 7,800$2,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,187 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 7,636$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.78 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 17c | 7,031$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,816.46 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…9863backed Yes | 27c | 6,901$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,070.9 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…e7b1backed Yes | 44c | 6,875$2,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,878.08 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 6,874$4,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,962.98 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c8acbacked Yes | 38c | 6,873$2,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,278.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 66c | 6,669$4,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,277.68 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…9f7ebacked No | 66c | 6,371$4,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,227.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…6835backed Yes | 35c | 6,300$2,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,072.46 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes | 49c | 6,172$2,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,176.62 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 76c | 6,105$4,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,443.86 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 66c | 6,040$3,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,963.16 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a8…3592backed Yes | 20c | 6,017$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,816.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +411.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x919a…23b4backed Yes | 14c | 5,971$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,159.98 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +206.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe677…43a2backed Yes | 13c | 5,843$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,093.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…662bbacked Yes | 24c | 5,530$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,211.29 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…3e1dbacked Yes | 51c | 5,401$2,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,634.69 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 52c | 5,211$2,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,485.98 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 32c | 5,174$1,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,526.49 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Yes | 17c | 5,015$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,138.09 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 68c | 5,000$3,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,593.58 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…bbf4backed Yes | 56c | 4,839$2,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…0382backed Yes | 51c | 4,751$2,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,341.77 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed No | 5c | 4,550$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.06 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 43c | 4,000$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…c12dbacked No | 78c | 3,882$3,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,040.07 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked No | 33c | 3,709$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.43 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 30c | 3,600$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,534.11 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed Yes | 51c | 3,498$1,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,726.07 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…a2d2backed Yes | 25c | 3,469$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,611.65 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…56d0backed Yes | 15c | 3,314$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,814.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 65c | 3,300$2,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.71 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed No | 71c | 3,000$2,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,130 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…db7cbacked Yes | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 65c | 2,999$1,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.65 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…33c6backed Yes | 72c | 2,960$2,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.18 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff49…69f5backed Yes | 13c | 2,830$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,447.64 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +235.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…de87backed Yes | 37c | 2,819$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,763.02 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…2870backed Yes | 30c | 2,785$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,942.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…f474backed No | 5c | 2,759$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 75c | 2,746$2,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,066.13 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x621c…907ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,672$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.07 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51e9…c658backed Yes | 11c | 2,631$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,341.58 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 1c | 2,530$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,504.86 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 52c | 2,419$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.29 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…5353backed No | 75c | 2,300$1,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,725 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 9c | 2,260$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.6 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 41c | 2,227$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.08 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes | 32c | 2,206$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,510.68 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b3…4369backed Yes | 23c | 2,199$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24f7…a542backed Yes | 47c | 2,193$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 27c | 2,132$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf919…4b10backed No | 72c | 2,111$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.22 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x543a…f2cfbacked No | 60c | 2,101$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.06 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…714ebacked No | 45c | 2,007$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf929…2487backed Yes | 74c | 1,978$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ab…b8b4backed Yes | 49c | 1,793$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…dce9backed Yes | 17c | 1,778$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…d225backed No | 62c | 1,762$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba5…5158backed Yes | 70c | 1,745$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…53babacked Yes | 19c | 1,739$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.13 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd241…2a86backed Yes | 40c | 1,700$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed No | 53c | 1,652$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.57 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a57…493ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,634$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 38c | 1,600$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,600$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.99 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 65c | 1,550$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.1 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +75%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 61c | 1,534$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.44 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kim Moon-soo win more than 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?this page
- Will Kim Moon-soo win between 20% and 25% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Kim Moon-soo win between 25% and 30% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Kim Moon-soo win between 30% and 35% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Kim Moon-soo win between 35% and 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Kim Moon-soo win less than 20% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.