TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9e7e…3e1d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
89
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Movies, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT3141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$214.6
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$29,707Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+99.8%+$29,648
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+97.9%+$84.71
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$559Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+46%+$257.48
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$273Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+46%+$125.67
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$521Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$520.85
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$585Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25.8%+$151.28
Park Sung-jae in jail by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+88.5%+$166.75
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$110.31
Park Sung-jae in jail by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,991Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+27.8%+$554.59
Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,061Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,061
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.5
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$733.33
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$808Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$807.79
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 14-17%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.61
Will Kim Moon-soo win more than 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,766Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+95.3%+$2,634.69
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$80,588Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+27.4%+$22,090.95
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$236.5
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 8% and 11% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$4,086Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+90%+$3,675.83
Will Kim Moon-soo win between 35% and 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$2,204Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,203.97
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 5-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,245Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,244.86
Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$6,068Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,068.04
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 8-11%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$2,784Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+437.4%+$12,178.6
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 11% and 14% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$920Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$919.79
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+36.3%+$22.93
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$255
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$504Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+29.3%+$147.47
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$4,281Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+87.5%+$3,743.89
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$4,590Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+44.4%+$2,039.19
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.06
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$5,055Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+67.2%+$3,399.08
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$6,521Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$6,520.88
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$4,691Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$4,690.97
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$6,328Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+74.6%+$4,723.03
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$159.88
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$36
Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$629Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$629
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$14,276Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+120.9%+$17,254.71
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$12,044Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+43.3%+$5,212.73
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,010Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,009.77
Will three people dissent the September Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$130
Will two people dissent the September Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$217.32
Will no one dissent September Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$554Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$553.73
All 19 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$6,023Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,023.4
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$280
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$187.51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$36,769Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$36,768.93
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$12,925Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$12,924.87
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$85,737Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$85,736.53
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,928Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,927.54
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20,804Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+46.4%+$9,659.34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$70,223Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+29.8%+$20,927.19
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$720Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$279.99
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+139.4%+$1,532.93
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$242Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$857.99
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$240
All 13 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick56cpaid+65.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.04
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$29.9
Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$26.67
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$53.89
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$426.86
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+114.6%+$114.81
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$42.9
Will Sinners win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.84
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+98%+$98.01
All 9 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+108.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$600
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 September 29-October 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$210
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$6,134Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25.2%+$1,546.65
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.