Movies · resolved market

Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d4755ee365f8418d49f2edd9cc7e1d31d097af690155b3fa11772e30ed8119d

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $457,493

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $457,493 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 663 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xafba…e61bbacked Yes	28c	22,648$6,299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16,348.8	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	32c	11,999$3,833 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,166.71	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Yes	59c	10,000$5,950 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,050	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-3.2wins	-0.46per pick	60cpaid	-76%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	51c	8,060$4,148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,147.88	482	36.3%175 W · 307 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed No	72c	7,226$5,203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,202.93	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	27cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes	28c	7,205$2,053 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,151.63	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+3.1wins	+0.22per pick	35cpaid	+73.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x52a8…83f2backed No	1c	5,050$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.5	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	57cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23b9…0b21backed Yes	21c	4,810$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,809.73	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes	19c	4,444$844 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,599.61	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dee…f426backed No	1c	4,399$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.99	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-88%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed No	58c	3,575$2,057 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,056.92	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x788e…3994backed Yes	16c	3,476$561 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,915.09	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.38per pick	12cpaid	+209.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No	48c	3,321$1,610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,610.35	71	36.6%26 W · 45 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d08backed No	79c	3,010$2,378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,377.87	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed Yes	47c	2,975$1,406 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,568.75	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No	76c	2,733$2,064 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,064.25	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	-4.6wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-76%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	61c	2,546$1,554 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,554.36	156	41.7%65 W · 91 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	30c	2,469$738 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,731.14	52	15.4%8 W · 44 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-27%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes	47c	2,324$1,093 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,230.98	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+41.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dc2…89a0backed Yes	21c	2,252$469 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,783.4	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	11cpaid	+60.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	61c	2,220$1,343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,343.48	365	38.1%139 W · 226 L	-19.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3395…7c66backed Yes	20c	2,124$420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,703.98	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+49.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed No	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	47c	2,000$945 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,055.38	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56eb…076abacked Yes	19c	2,000$380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,619.97	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes	54c	1,891$1,029 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$861.32	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No	79c	1,832$1,442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,441.99	87	52.9%46 W · 41 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	29c	1,772$511 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,260.65	106	32.1%34 W · 72 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed No	71c	1,700$1,214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,214	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-12%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63bc…3e8ebacked Yes	69c	1,677$1,162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$515.27	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+44.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…db2abacked Yes	24c	1,594$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,203.62	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaef9…0acbbacked No	72c	1,539$1,115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,114.86	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+4.7wins	+0.26per pick	41cpaid	+123%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9836…6f2ebacked Yes	28c	1,536$426 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,109.6	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+71.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes	20c	1,470$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,170.16	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	26cpaid	+43.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes	18c	1,451$258 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,193.27	61	27.9%17 W · 44 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6478…49f3backed Yes	24c	1,416$340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,076.16	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	27cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x402e…5d12backed No	36c	1,354$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484.84	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed No	59c	1,322$783 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$783.28	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes	20c	1,250$247 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,002.45	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	+3.7wins	+0.15per pick	26cpaid	+37.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed No	13c	1,230$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.9	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+3.5wins	+0.21per pick	9cpaid	+344.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x34cf…7188backed No	37c	1,223$447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$446.54	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+24%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No	18c	1,222$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.96	53	11.3%6 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed Yes	35c	1,201$421 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$779.61	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67f9…d241backed Yes	19c	1,178$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$953.79	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	12cpaid	+75.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4526…7a45backed Yes	21c	1,113$232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$881.18	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+2.2wins	+0.15per pick	39cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No	64c	1,104$711 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$711.26	183	44.3%81 W · 102 L	+7.5wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	0%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d5d…31b9backed Yes	49c	1,094$541 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$552.35	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc450…a5b8backed Yes	25c	1,067$264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$803.06	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b72…cd8ebacked No	75c	1,063$797 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$797.25	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.2wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes	28c	1,059$296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$763.37	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79a1…2d87backed No	76c	1,056$803 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$802.56	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	43cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No	74c	1,047$776 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$775.51	167	41.9%70 W · 97 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff9…3427backed Yes	43c	1,038$442 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$595.66	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…54a7backed Yes	34c	1,032$351 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$681.12	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5cc…3f0fbacked Yes	20c	1,025$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$825.03	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Yes	43c	1,000$430 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$570	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.31per pick	56cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes	20c	1,000$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$800	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes	19c	999.96$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$809.97	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.8wins	-0.13per pick	48cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f0f…98e8backed Yes	24c	987$237 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$750.12	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8727…83d7backed No	76c	982$746 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$746.32	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb212…0f8ebacked Yes	26c	981$253 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$727.69	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+1.6wins	+0.12per pick	41cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1b8…84e3backed No	75c	977$733 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$732.75	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2abd…74ebbacked No	63c	963$607 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$606.69	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-3.0wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-53%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No	77c	927.52$715 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$715.19	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	25c	922.12$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$691.9	484	14%68 W · 416 L	-39.3wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d93…7f30backed No	76c	916$696 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$696.16	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-3.2wins	-0.20per pick	38cpaid	-64.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed No	69c	906.12$622 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$621.75	79	36.7%29 W · 50 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed Yes	39c	897$346 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$550.91	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1ec…46cebacked No	76c	892$678 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$677.92	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7a8…7efabacked Yes	23c	884$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$680.68	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+3.5wins	+0.20per pick	39cpaid	+79.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes	38c	882$340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$542.48	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x506a…1b43backed Yes	24c	880$211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$668.8	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes	46c	878$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$478.06	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+2.8wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x95cc…f215backed No	76c	878$667 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$667.28	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad46…0918backed Yes	24c	862$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$655.12	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+2.6wins	+0.22per pick	45cpaid	+90.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b82…1712backed No	76c	855$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$649.8	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	40c	823$328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$494.68	299	26.4%79 W · 220 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2247…96e8backed Yes	37c	813$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$512.19	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ac7…78c7backed Yes	24c	809$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$614.84	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.19per pick	41cpaid	+80.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x246f…0ab2backed Yes	33c	807$266 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$540.69	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7039…2d8abacked No	76c	802$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$609.52	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	18c	799.98$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$651.99	473	28.3%134 W · 339 L	-32.8wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	42c	785.01$329 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$455.54	130	40%52 W · 78 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5ae0…4590backed No	62c	772$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478.64	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca36…bb1dbacked Yes	25c	764$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$574.62	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73df…ba67backed No	76c	739$562 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$561.64	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked No	52c	735.99$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.04	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5baa…0ec6backed No	76c	735$559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$558.6	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.29per pick	49cpaid	-62.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2b1…0005backed Yes	32c	734$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$498.99	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes	37c	732$271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$461.16	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafea…230bbacked No	76c	711$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.36	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+56.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c8e…9be8backed Yes	24c	710$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$539.6	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.14per pick	58cpaid	+57.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No	46c	702.05$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.26	133	37.6%50 W · 83 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f0d…1683backed No	63c	692$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.96	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7f…f745backed Yes	40c	687$275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$412.1	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb04e…d4aabacked Yes	21c	685.14$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$540.82	54	14.8%8 W · 46 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-10%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ed0…0532backed No	76c	666$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$506.16	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-3.4wins	-0.38per pick	60cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2614…4442backed Yes	53c	657.91$351 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$306.56	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes	14c	656.25$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$566.52	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	33cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc0…fab9backed No	73c	656$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478.88	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+38.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event