TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0ed0…0532

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
61
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Middle East, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 57 out of 100; worst Movies at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick39cpaid-56.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.14
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.04
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$237.22
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$504Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$504.03
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.52
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$134.7
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$426Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$425.78
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$26.65
Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+334.8%+$410.41
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$460.08
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.4wins-0.38per pick60cpaid-65.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$506Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$506.16
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$302Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$148.83
Will Timothée Chalamet win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$104.32
Will Eva Victor - Sorry, Baby win Best First-Time Director of a Theatrical Feature Film at the 78th DGA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$299.2
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$109.98
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$409.5
Will Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$128.31
Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$238Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+63.9%+$152.1
Will Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) win Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$163.24
All 9 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.25
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$351Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$549.61
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.8
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 5 be between 60 and 70?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$345Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+31.6%+$108.96
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+63.9%+$28.86
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$455Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$151.75
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$53.13
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.25
All 8 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+92.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick63cpaid+60.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+49.3%+$88.44
Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+72.4%+$229.32
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Trump" be said at the Super Bowl?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$404Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+112.8%+$455.8
Will the Green Bay Packers make the playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$105.54
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-34.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Qarabağ advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$55.55
Will Atlético Madrid advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+31.6%+$29.52
All 2 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$54.44
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$257.64
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$432Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+37%+$159.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackburn Beavers vs. Eastern Illinois Panthersbacked Eastern Illinois Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+26.7%+$86.51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$158.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump endorse Ken Paxton for the Texas Republican Senate primary by March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$87.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the announcers say "Eye poke" during Strickland vs. Hernandez?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$66.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$316.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Paris Basketballbacked Paris Basketball · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$220.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.