Movies · resolved market
Will Eva Victor - Sorry, Baby win Best First-Time Director of a Theatrical Feature Film at the 78th DGA Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c0977fd91a52240b928b2dfda4b38278733b0ef712f89d1572e0881535b144c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 79c | 1,494$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.26 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…0c57backed No | 21c | 1,231$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…6baabacked Yes | 80c | 977$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…1690backed No | 17c | 834$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes | 80c | 757$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbd…17c9backed No | 20c | 744$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed Yes | 19c | 717$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.23 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed No | 20c | 714$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…9357backed Yes | 55c | 461$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 17c | 416$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.28 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 80c | 399$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.2 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked No | 20c | 399$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked No | 45c | 397$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.35 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked No | 18c | 395$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.9 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…0532backed Yes | 80c | 374$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 60cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked No | 20c | 374$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9a…6fb2backed Yes | 79c | 368$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed No | 21c | 368$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked No | 17c | 350$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed No | 20c | 341$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 80c | 341$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 79c | 340$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…4456backed No | 21c | 340$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +156.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked No | 21c | 260$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 20c | 201$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 20c | 192.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.94 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 21c | 186$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.94 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e77…3273backed Yes | 79c | 128$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 77c | 106.66$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 18c | 89.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 17c | 88.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…38d2backed No | 21c | 77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked No | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed Yes | 78c | 65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…7cd3backed No | 22c | 65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 80c | 51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0759…9294backed Yes | 80c | 36.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Eva Victor - Sorry, Baby win Best First-Time Director of a Theatrical Feature Film at the 78th DGA Awards?this page
- Will Alex Russell - Lurker win Best First-Time Director of a Theatrical Feature Film at the 78th DGA Awards?No won
- Will Charlie Polinger - The Plague win Best First-Time Director of a Theatrical Feature Film at the 78th DGA Awards?Yes won
- Will Hasan Hadi - The President's Cake win Best First-Time Director of a Theatrical Feature Film at the 78th DGA Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.