TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf0a8…0c57

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
69
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Music, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Music at 57 out of 100; worst Bundesliga at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.20 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$467Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$466.62
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$180
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$570Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$364.26
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$65.52
Will "AI" be said 15+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$365.4
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.65
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$136.5
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+256.4%+$138.85
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$299
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.98
Will "California" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$59.84
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$59.78
Will UpScrolled be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$26.91
All 13 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.63
Will "ONE PIECE: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$348Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$347.85
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$372Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$371.73
Will "Sinners" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$322Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$297.12
Will Come See Me in the Good Light win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.02
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.47
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+354.5%+$87.36
Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Producer of Documentary Film at the 37th PGA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+257.1%+$394.56
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$419Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$418.76
Will Eva Victor - Sorry, Baby win Best First-Time Director of a Theatrical Feature Film at the 78th DGA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+376.2%+$972.49
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+182.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-19.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-47.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Asian League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+225.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocksbacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.16
East Texas A&M Lions vs. Lamar Cardinalsbacked East Texas A&M Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.62
North Alabama Lions vs. Central Arkansas Bears (W)backed North Alabama Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$192.24
All 3 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+223.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dundee FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+112.8%+$67.84
Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+334.8%+$666.05
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$44.55
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$293Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+88.7%+$259.44
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$105.45
Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$210.7
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick42cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+203%+$213.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Brugge advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$99.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Shut down" or "Shutdown" during April press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: sleepers vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America Playoffsbacked M80 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$434Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$433.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-02-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$436Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$436.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.72
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.