Movies · resolved market
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc98668f6e3482afcc05074782b69a29895d1fc2f7ef1e62c675033dfe100f9b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 38c | 10,794$4,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,143.06 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 52c | 6,709$3,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,242.83 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 56c | 5,018$2,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,827.72 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 2c | 4,339$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.21 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 67c | 2,845$1,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.26 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 43c | 2,768$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,585.43 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,376$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 54c | 1,939$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.42 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 19c | 1,264$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.84 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 64c | 1,241$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.88 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 49c | 1,240$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.98 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 11c | 1,083$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.05 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked No | 60c | 1,066$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 60c | 1,039$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed Yes | 40c | 947$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 40c | 939$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.54 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes | 24c | 934.21$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.04 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…0c57backed Yes | 40c | 927$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 21c | 821$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.41 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed Yes | 10c | 775$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 58c | 755.17$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.06 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked No | 60c | 708$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.91 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 73c | 650.53$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.65 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed Yes | 71c | 569.74$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.7 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 8c | 483.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda9b…b2a9backed No | 47c | 416.8$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 16c | 410.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 55c | 410.27$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.32 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 400.73$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.85 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…bb87backed Yes | 22c | 400$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.59 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 398.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 54c | 328.68$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.37 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 33c | 326.14$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.86 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 14c | 282.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed Yes | 72c | 277.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc7…7f02backed Yes | 18c | 273.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfe…1afcbacked No | 43c | 260.59$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.54 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed No | 43c | 253.03$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.77 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 12c | 250.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bed…7f23backed Yes | 72c | 239.42$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 229$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 44c | 224.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 43c | 175$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.63 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 165.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed Yes | 45c | 159.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 20c | 158.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed Yes | 70c | 157.47$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…42a0backed No | 55c | 145.84$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed Yes | 8c | 144.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4acf…106cbacked Yes | 10c | 113.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x949f…3bbebacked Yes | 15c | 96.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked Yes | 20c | 74.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 61c | 53.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 31c | 48.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 68c | 47.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 65c | 45.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +365.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked Yes | 66c | 34.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e12…a41cbacked Yes | 50c | 32.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd565…4eadbacked No | 50c | 32.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 70c | 32.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…64a7backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed No | 64c | 26.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 75c | 22.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 69c | 22.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed No | 75c | 21.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a89…e87fbacked No | 78c | 18.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…6237backed No | 57c | 17.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f8…d385backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m?this page
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 42m and 46m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 46m and 50m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?Yes won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 42m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.