TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5b5e…332e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
156
Categories scored
23
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: World Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 54 out of 100; worst AI at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3542.9%15 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+368.7%+$82.97
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+69.4%+$39.94
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.42
Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$5.97
Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.56
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.75
Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.4
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+147.3%+$41.7
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$38.97
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.95
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+31.1%+$14.08
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.22
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+152.1%+$63.35
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$6.3
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$19.5
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$29.81
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.1
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.89
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.61
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.2
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.75
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$218.46
Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+60.7%+$32.72
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT2035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.61
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+760.4%+$350.59
Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$114.26
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$76
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.55
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+29.3%+$47.6
Will White House post 140-159 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.07
Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.93
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.15
Will White House post 180-199 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$25.7
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.1
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.77
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.64
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$40.98
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$349Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+346.3%+$1,208.65
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.57
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.79
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$10.82
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+70.1%+$43.26
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
All 20 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.64
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.72
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.63
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.72
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+64.5%+$51.37
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.09
Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+203%+$33.5
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 40-44% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$11.25
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+203%+$33.5
Will voter turnout be 71–74% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$4.81
Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$17.5
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+300%+$37.5
Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+293.3%+$78.3
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.3
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$16
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.08
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+67%+$115.93
All 18 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT1729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-52.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Commodities — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.38
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+67.9%+$32.64
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+64.8%+$10.32
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$31
Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.57
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+94.9%+$18.6
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.55
Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.85
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.35
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.44
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+28.5%+$22.82
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.56
Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.05
All 17 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1428.6%4 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.29per pick58cpaid-58.1%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
AI — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.89
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.47
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$7.17
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+62.7%+$111.37
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.53
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.5
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+50.3%+$17.08
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+43.1%+$9.04
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.5
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.22
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.58
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.53
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.5
AWS service disrupted by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$64
All 14 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.8
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$16.7
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+52.4%+$32.65
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 170m and 180m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.2
Will "ONE PIECE: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+29%+$6.38
Will "War Machine" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.68
Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.08
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.88
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$67
All 9 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-70.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid+17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-71.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-59.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Yokkaichi: Yasutaka Uchiyama vs Hayato Matsuokabacked Hayato Matsuoka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatschbacked Polona Hercog · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$57.75
Sao Paulo: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Eduardo Ribeirobacked Gianluca Cadenasso · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.05
All 3 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+63.2%+$54.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-04-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)backed Crystal Palace FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+25%+$3.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jiangsu Dragons vs. Jilin Northeast Tigersbacked Jilin Northeast Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Sunrisers Hyderabadbacked Sunrisers Hyderabad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tundra Esports win ESL One Birmingham 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.7
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.