World Politics · resolved market
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d418a3caa9a19037d40461032e4b18daefc08373ada02d584b9261d7e13c8f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $211,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $202,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $211,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 263 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 51c | 39,421$19,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,453.66 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 46c | 20,499$9,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,427.51 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e0…a72bbacked Yes | 55c | 6,729$3,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,683 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc6…f080backed Yes | 56c | 6,650$3,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,724 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e6…1b6abacked Yes | 55c | 6,650$3,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,657.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bd…48dbbacked Yes | 58c | 6,452$3,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,742.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…d65cbacked Yes | 59c | 6,452$3,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,806.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489c…e92cbacked Yes | 56c | 6,340$3,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,550.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…0702backed Yes | 56c | 6,340$3,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,550.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked No | 55c | 5,931$3,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,685.28 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b46…1263backed Yes | 50c | 5,562$2,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,773 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…f1b7backed No | 55c | 5,171$2,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,329.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 49c | 4,671$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,279.8 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc141…0fe5backed Yes | 48c | 4,268$2,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,038.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5a…2056backed Yes | 50c | 3,789$1,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14c9…32a0backed No | 45c | 3,717$1,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,044.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc936…4bdcbacked No | 45c | 3,717$1,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,044.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8170…09fabacked No | 42c | 3,610$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,094.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0920…34f4backed No | 42c | 3,610$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,093.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c4…43cabacked No | 59c | 3,306$1,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.11 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bef…f6b9backed No | 45c | 3,176$1,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,746.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a5…6fc1backed No | 44c | 3,176$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,778.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb388…0161backed No | 44c | 3,164$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,771.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6329…ff2abacked No | 45c | 3,164$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 3,010$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.53 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcff2…d104backed No | 45c | 2,933$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a95…acd1backed No | 45c | 2,933$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eab…5cb0backed No | 42c | 2,842$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e9…62dcbacked No | 40c | 2,842$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…d650backed No | 49c | 2,745$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.19 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 56c | 2,700$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 33c | 2,639$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.02 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60be…f164backed No | 53c | 2,300$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.95 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +6.8wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5770…43b8backed Yes | 2c | 1,850$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed No | 29c | 1,712$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa80a…07f1backed Yes | 1c | 1,649$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked Yes | 71c | 1,567$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 47c | 1,500$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.99 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 45c | 1,460$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.1 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…69f3backed Yes | 51c | 1,368$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a1…fc31backed Yes | 52c | 1,309$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,192$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.32 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 47c | 1,100$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.99 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 55c | 1,053$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.14 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked No | 48c | 1,049$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…1a71backed No | 52c | 1,005$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.63 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +6.0wins | +0.43per pick | 50cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 48c | 922.95$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.69 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be5…6c75backed Yes | 46c | 913.36$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 50c | 870.91$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.78 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Yes | 50c | 863.68$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.19 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 823.32$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.41 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…3c6dbacked No | 53c | 820.74$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.58 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +66%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…97bdbacked Yes | 52c | 774.34$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86f9…111ebacked No | 57c | 701.73$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4097…da98backed Yes | 41c | 646.65$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…720cbacked Yes | 47c | 637.31$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.38 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a31…6161backed Yes | 47c | 622.7$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked Yes | 52c | 591$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 48c | 590$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.7 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d45…0951backed Yes | 59c | 543.61$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…b0c1backed Yes | 47c | 530.46$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 54c | 525.92$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.36 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…4829backed No | 55c | 522$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ba…0f36backed Yes | 53c | 514$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…4f75backed No | 66c | 499.99$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Yes | 34c | 499.98$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.55 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked Yes | 53c | 493.53$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 45cpaid | -87%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1d…0273backed Yes | 46c | 491.91$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…1a35backed Yes | 52c | 458$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d62…27e0backed No | 40c | 456.85$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.68 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4454…f6bfbacked Yes | 54c | 443.95$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d6…5176backed No | 54c | 424.22$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c77…1b74backed Yes | 53c | 423.26$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked Yes | 33c | 423$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…3093backed Yes | 53c | 392.96$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2136…67eabacked Yes | 54c | 388.67$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed Yes | 41c | 367.13$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -5.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…7fcabacked Yes | 45c | 365.7$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc9…ac05backed Yes | 55c | 364.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97a…abdcbacked Yes | 49c | 346.94$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Yes | 49c | 304$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed No | 63c | 293.27$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.27 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 41c | 287.32$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.49 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 44c | 287$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.28 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…034dbacked Yes | 52c | 277.88$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22ce…7f27backed No | 55c | 270.64$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 56c | 253.55$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.49 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 55c | 249$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.95 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 50c | 245.53$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.35 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 45c | 238.13$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.07 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 24c | 222$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6fc1backed Yes | 46c | 219.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 53c | 216.86$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.17 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 38c | 212.83$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…4d77backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a9…1aefbacked Yes | 46c | 210.18$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 52c | 208.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…0609backed No | 48c | 208.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaec8…02bbbacked Yes | 40c | 205.78$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 57c | 202.26$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.74 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats?this page
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 110 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.