TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2756…42ef

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
85
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: IPO, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category IPO at 56 out of 100; worst World Politics at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1650%8 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$143.07
Will Syria recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.58
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$616Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$410.4
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.26
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$465Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$131.12
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$462Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$217.6
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$159.34
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$550Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+156.4%+$860.71
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+25%+$51.4
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$271Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+63.9%+$173.55
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+138.1%+$105.56
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$203.28
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$136.88
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$311Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$310.66
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$78.11
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$117
All 16 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.65
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$147.4
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$319.05
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.15
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$519Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$375.9
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.25 (LOW) by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+257.1%+$250.56
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$436Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$435.6
Will "Elon" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$333Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+66.4%+$221.05
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$124.83
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$502Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$501.5
All 11 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick56cpaid+42.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Weather — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$42.77
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$522Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$245.44
Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$353Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$325.92
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+193.3%+$509.41
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$238.34
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$294Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+26.6%+$78.12
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$358Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$358
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$217Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+61.3%+$133
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$678Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+75.4%+$511.7
All 9 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+62%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
IPO — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-71.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-66.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2025-12-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+44.9%+$63.55
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$30.36
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+809.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Evansville Aces: O/U 142.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$887.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,342Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$822.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
The Bondi Parlay (Feb 27)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+35.1%+$95.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX have exactly 10 launches in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$13.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahcebacked Fenerbahce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$284.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$466Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$466.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Team Spirit qualify to Blast Open Rotterdam Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$445Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$444.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$576Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$575.64
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.