IPO · resolved market
Will Forgent Power Solutions' market cap be greater than $9.00B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c99f863e99c9a3fbd792ec5424c4d49e8c3306050610cd506ac10f46c066425
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes | 41c | 2,498$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…975ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,382$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked Yes | 39c | 1,327$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed Yes | 41c | 1,049$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked No | 61c | 985$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 41c | 972.99$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +189.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed No | 59c | 936$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +271.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed Yes | 41c | 920$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…63b6backed Yes | 41c | 870$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed No | 59c | 694.3$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2d…caf4backed No | 59c | 677$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…4146backed No | 59c | 661$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed Yes | 41c | 649$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed No | 59c | 587$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed No | 59c | 570$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked No | 59c | 532$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +62%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked No | 59c | 524$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed Yes | 39c | 481$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed No | 61c | 480$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…00acbacked No | 61c | 463$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked Yes | 39c | 463$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked Yes | 41c | 461$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed No | 59c | 461$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed No | 59c | 437$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 59c | 420$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked No | 59c | 396$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 59c | 387$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed No | 59c | 379$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked Yes | 41c | 318$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…2867backed No | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…eb3abacked No | 61c | 286$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…fb12backed No | 59c | 211$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf23e…aec3backed No | 59c | 193$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked No | 59c | 192$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed No | 61c | 183$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…4456backed No | 59c | 180$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…95c8backed No | 61c | 159$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba2d…13a7backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365c…c731backed Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…2f7bbacked No | 59c | 62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04fb…2f00backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…57eebacked Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d4…7f3bbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -5.9wins | -0.37per pick | 43cpaid | -92%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Forgent Power Solutions' market cap be greater than $9.00B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Forgent Power Solutions' market cap be between $8.25B and $8.50B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Forgent Power Solutions' market cap be between $8.50B and $8.75B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Forgent Power Solutions' market cap be between $8.75B and $9.00B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Forgent Power Solutions' market cap be less than $8.00B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.