TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x805a…735d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
66
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Macro Indicators, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Macro Indicators at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.42
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$315.35
Will Sabih Khan be the next CEO of Apple?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$604Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$170.28
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$202.05
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$506Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$505.56
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$846Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$846.07
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.21
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$258.16
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$349Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$309.73
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.12
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.25 (LOW) by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+334.8%+$119.35
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+233.3%+$644
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$92.4
Will "Elon" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$476Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$476.03
Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$153.79
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$153
All 16 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.65
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$79.8
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.88
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.78
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$11.2
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$607Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$606.84
Iran strike on Qatar by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$244.53
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$91.52
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$733Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+108.7%+$796.22
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+92.3%+$118.56
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+33.3%+$24.5
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+88.7%+$33.84
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$135.2
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$202.5
All 14 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$354Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$124.28
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$329Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$82.2
Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.41
Will Seattle have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$25.48
Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+47.1%+$30.08
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 5 be between 60 and 70?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$138
Will there be at least 650 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+100%+$170.5
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 3 of the 2026 flu season be between 50 and 60?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$73.35
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+48.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Ipswich Town FC (-1.5)backed Ipswich Town FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.32
Will Charlton Athletic FC vs. Portsmouth FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$356Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+31.9%+$113.42
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$149.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Querétaro FC vs. FC Juárez end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$210.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$319Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$567.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+112.8%+$258.11
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Forgent Power Solutions' market cap be greater than $9.00B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$309Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+69.5%+$214.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$105.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX have 12 or more launches in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$24.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alan Dershowitz be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$173.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$211.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs. Charleston Southern Buccaneers: O/U 158.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$160.56
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.