Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fc6b55dc2189ab77cdf51df0e7a4b545a90f389d4cf2fe6f0c1edb8ed820a49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $254,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $202,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $254,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 321 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb65…3115backed Yes | 14c | 19,195$2,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,762.49 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb1…fc21backed No | 70c | 14,870$10,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,440.73 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…7a70backed Yes | 22c | 7,140$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.36 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e6…7a1abacked Yes | 0c | 6,789$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 0c | 6,700$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…4623backed Yes | 3c | 5,957$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.6 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed No | 67c | 5,624$3,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,882.44 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 8c | 5,438$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.37 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 5,043$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 78c | 4,395$3,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.92 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 0c | 4,050$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…0574backed Yes | 18c | 3,994$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.44 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked No | 72c | 3,624$2,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.63 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…71c2backed Yes | 1c | 2,985$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4811…2a5dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,933$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 23c | 2,861$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.01 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes | 38c | 2,770$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.22 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes | 27c | 2,724$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.84 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,471$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 9c | 2,309$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.83 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…93edbacked Yes | 29c | 2,097$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.23 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…8902backed Yes | 47c | 2,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.99 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 1,972$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.7 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4341…4a4cbacked Yes | 41c | 1,923$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66e8…0838backed Yes | 1c | 1,914$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…006fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,878$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 1,675$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.11 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0548…66a0backed No | 75c | 1,615$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.36 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked No | 77c | 1,582$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.29 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 24c | 1,569$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.28 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…e858backed No | 48c | 1,470$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…5e4ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,430$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.96 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked No | 74c | 1,429$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.24 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2987…0d2cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,344$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 75c | 1,327$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.26 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 66c | 1,248$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.38 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 21c | 1,200$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,173$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…0c32backed Yes | 13c | 1,148$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.86 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 38c | 1,147$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,096$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…b810backed No | 67c | 1,092$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…35c4backed Yes | 41c | 1,030$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.69 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…13a7backed Yes | 65c | 1,022$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.03 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80b8…9c0ebacked No | 69c | 1,005$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.15 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 25c | 999.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…1a93backed Yes | 51c | 937$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.87 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 32c | 932.97$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.23 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 2c | 928.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed No | 54c | 926.98$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.48 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab77…da8bbacked No | 78c | 858.79$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 73c | 853.91$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.15 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…adbcbacked Yes | 34c | 830.07$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…f77ebacked No | 36c | 824.86$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.73 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 52c | 787$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.24 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…ab74backed Yes | 64c | 783.12$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 72c | 777$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.45 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…f154backed Yes | 71c | 770.43$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 12c | 763.74$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.12 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 68c | 750.06$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.46 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 65c | 694.73$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.72 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45f0…4435backed Yes | 52c | 691$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…1796backed Yes | 24c | 655.89$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes | 52c | 650$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23a3…8ce7backed No | 32c | 647.07$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…db74backed No | 77c | 633.03$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.4 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed No | 48c | 628$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.56 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…bf21backed Yes | 52c | 604$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8445…64dabacked Yes | 34c | 594.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.91 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91c3…0783backed Yes | 36c | 569.15$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.74 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked No | 71c | 565.76$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.76 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 68c | 559.82$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.82 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…0906backed Yes | 40c | 538.23$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 75c | 532.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.29 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a04…2310backed Yes | 51c | 532$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked No | 58c | 524$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked No | 48c | 523$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.96 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…71babacked Yes | 74c | 510.69$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 40c | 502.02$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.07 | 115 | 59.1%68 W · 47 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 27c | 501.66$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.88 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d90…8b87backed Yes | 34c | 499.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.5 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…0005backed No | 49c | 498$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 6c | 495.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed No | 35c | 492.21$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.4 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed Yes | 28c | 469.74$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc976…0ad5backed Yes | 32c | 461.92$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.43 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa868…cf1cbacked Yes | 28c | 449.97$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3aa…14dcbacked Yes | 24c | 413.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd524…2accbacked No | 79c | 400.46$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yes | 30c | 400$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +24.9wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 28c | 400$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…3913backed Yes | 46c | 399.99$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…44a9backed No | 48c | 394$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.