Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15374c1c84b73cafd8b148892296969cf3bedc66122af490f4f84cd0cd16ffa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x483a…8832backed Yes | 12c | 2,612$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.97 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…4f2abacked Yes | 3c | 2,330$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 3c | 2,001$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,947$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,642$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes | 20c | 1,618$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 27c | 1,261$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.31 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc803…6b6fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,178$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e10…6a89backed No | 69c | 1,072$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked Yes | 48c | 1,063$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.24 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,008$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.68 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3960…0975backed Yes | 2c | 1,005$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 3c | 1,003$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 36c | 971$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.56 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Yes | 2c | 920$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed Yes | 38c | 889$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.82 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb60d…bfb5backed No | 70c | 837.8$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed No | 62c | 751$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.38 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked Yes | 12c | 664.58$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 42c | 646.55$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.87 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed No | 64c | 630$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 568.63$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.22 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…66acbacked No | 58c | 538.66$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.96 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…0f21backed Yes | 2c | 530$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…0d4cbacked Yes | 43c | 505$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8916…db60backed No | 76c | 499.89$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.59 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 60cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked No | 64c | 488$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed Yes | 36c | 488$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.68 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed No | 52c | 480$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…9be8backed Yes | 42c | 470.93$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x673d…e929backed No | 58c | 430$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…c913backed No | 52c | 415$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…9d41backed Yes | 42c | 406$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed No | 58c | 406$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked Yes | 10c | 399.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…15dbbacked No | 66c | 363.7$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.17 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4751…b83fbacked Yes | 14c | 352.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf049…8b3ebacked Yes | 9c | 352.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 54c | 343.99$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.88 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…905fbacked Yes | 9c | 339.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…fb20backed No | 57c | 328.94$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.94 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked No | 64c | 326$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.36 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 4c | 305$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…9991backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +317.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 10c | 297.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed No | 55c | 280$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.3 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 57c | 270$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0de5…d01cbacked No | 57c | 268$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked Yes | 43c | 268$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.24 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +74%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed Yes | 43c | 260$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed No | 57c | 260$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0371…70c3backed No | 63c | 253.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.59 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 38c | 251.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 235.97$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…0447backed No | 57c | 235$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.05 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed No | 52c | 228$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.44 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 221.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 36c | 219.57$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.8 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 47c | 212.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 32c | 209.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 36c | 200.12$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…3a51backed Yes | 51c | 195.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x194e…1833backed Yes | 38c | 181.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes | 61c | 179.41$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…6828backed No | 58c | 173.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed Yes | 32c | 170$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…206bbacked Yes | 34c | 163.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906e…bc2bbacked Yes | 31c | 162.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +225.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 39c | 162.18$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…f1b0backed Yes | 31c | 158.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 14c | 153.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 11c | 151.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…facdbacked No | 67c | 149.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 35c | 141.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 56c | 138$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 62c | 138$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd356…963dbacked Yes | 42c | 118.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +8.9wins | +0.30per pick | 40cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe19d…334dbacked Yes | 31c | 118$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…c364backed Yes | 46c | 115.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca9…e423backed Yes | 37c | 106.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 40c | 104.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 30c | 104.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…2277backed No | 60c | 103.46$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…bb12backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9179…4096backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 42c | 99.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae95…cc44backed Yes | 32c | 96.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 26c | 91.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2100…1294backed Yes | 34c | 88.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…f842backed No | 59c | 85.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 200 | 35.5%71 W · 129 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37aa…01f4backed No | 65c | 79.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.