Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x726101891ef2820142bbd49a40799caf4e3ae48583736728c0cdd9df9fd4e42d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a08…f99ebacked No | 54c | 13,267$7,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,163.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…dff4backed Yes | 46c | 8,403$3,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,537.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…5266backed Yes | 46c | 4,863$2,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,626.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4592…49b6backed Yes | 46c | 4,465$2,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,410.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8f…2999backed No | 54c | 4,465$2,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,410.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5083…9cbdbacked No | 55c | 3,639$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…3eefbacked Yes | 45c | 2,297$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…6448backed Yes | 45c | 2,295$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd997…53f2backed No | 54c | 1,876$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…8f4ebacked No | 54c | 1,855$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b9…12e4backed Yes | 46c | 1,855$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +286.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 40c | 1,614$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.07 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…086fbacked Yes | 43c | 1,406$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.41 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.33per pick | 40cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…9546backed Yes | 47c | 1,249$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…a6b0backed Yes | 46c | 1,044$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 57c | 999$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.43 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked No | 52c | 854$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.08 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…6698backed Yes | 39c | 823$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.03 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb28…74f4backed Yes | 48c | 814$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…20acbacked Yes | 45c | 770.64$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.47 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 3c | 666$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed Yes | 36c | 634$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…0d52backed No | 56c | 599$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.44 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…0c87backed No | 61c | 574$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…0de7backed No | 59c | 569.1$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.46 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 37c | 567$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.21 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 57c | 565.87$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.18 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked No | 53c | 537$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 64c | 481$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.84 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed No | 55c | 456.84$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.11 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 42c | 438.36$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.4 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 3c | 415.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 10cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked No | 61c | 387$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.07 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked Yes | 47c | 380$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked No | 53c | 379$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.87 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 61c | 359.67$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.15 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed No | 54c | 317$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.18 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed No | 63c | 315.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 62cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34a2…e80fbacked No | 64c | 313.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e0…ad86backed No | 63c | 305$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 44c | 305$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.8 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed No | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 56c | 299.97$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.98 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1c04backed No | 61c | 274$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Yes | 79c | 273.43$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 78c | 272.58$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2335…6b4fbacked Yes | 40c | 270.26$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.16 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed Yes | 34c | 269$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.54 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked No | 63c | 262$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.06 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +55%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Yes | 40c | 261.27$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.94 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…f6c3backed Yes | 44c | 243.08$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.48 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 56c | 234.54$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.34 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bf…ddebbacked Yes | 44c | 228.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7252…9e6dbacked No | 60c | 213.97$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.29 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafe3…1f2abacked Yes | 49c | 202.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.58 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 45c | 200$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 53c | 199.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.19 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed No | 13c | 199.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +8.3wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 35c | 199.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.97 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 36c | 184.37$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 181.62$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.72 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf748…ecb8backed Yes | 43c | 178.88$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.96 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed Yes | 44c | 176$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.56 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked No | 64c | 173$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.72 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…2238backed No | 61c | 162$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 161.08$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.46 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…2dfbbacked No | 62c | 160.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x219a…5de0backed Yes | 42c | 150.72$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…cae1backed No | 53c | 137$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0658…57b5backed No | 57c | 133.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed Yes | 47c | 121$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4252…4a6ebacked No | 61c | 120.79$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 42c | 120.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…5813backed No | 61c | 120$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a9e5backed Yes | 45c | 114.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 40c | 110$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…992bbacked No | 58c | 106.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b7…81e0backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…9e88backed Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…fb20backed No | 50c | 99.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 33c | 98.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12a8…90ddbacked No | 54c | 95.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 43c | 92.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d56…0bcbbacked No | 55c | 90.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 45c | 89.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 64c | 87.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…904cbacked No | 58c | 85.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39e0…b18fbacked No | 61c | 84.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf8…b5a3backed No | 59c | 84.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccea…9e77backed No | 64c | 84.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e90…5bd6backed No | 60c | 83.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 58c | 83.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…2cabbacked No | 61c | 82.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…22e4backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +11.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 42c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 200 | 35.5%71 W · 129 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 41c | 69.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a7…d389backed Yes | 40c | 62.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +179%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.