Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefa60e2b5e71fae1f14800c21cab970b484c02b46907367221828f7f31915e52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 5,312$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 3c | 2,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 53c | 2,332$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.88 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 38c | 2,222$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,377.6 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,920$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.97 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a5…fe46backed Yes | 19c | 1,865$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,518.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked No | 3c | 1,620$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked No | 1c | 1,463$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 79c | 1,378$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.63 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…9d52backed No | 4c | 1,081$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…495cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,048$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 20cpaid | +241.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,007$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.6 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc537…f385backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8348…de9fbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 28c | 900$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +24.9wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes | 10c | 835.14$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.16 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…97e9backed No | 8c | 810$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5236…ab18backed No | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b10…e48fbacked Yes | 13c | 792.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…b2b5backed Yes | 8c | 747.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.42 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 47c | 687$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.11 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 8c | 641$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.68 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…3a51backed Yes | 47c | 637.84$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.84 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 612.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.62 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked No | 10c | 599.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +333.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 70c | 596.33$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.73 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c9…224cbacked Yes | 32c | 582.09$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.53 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.36per pick | 21cpaid | +555.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x33e3…00dabacked Yes | 60c | 582.08$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.98 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f53…e075backed No | 69c | 563$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…1e57backed No | 62c | 557.11$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…03ffbacked Yes | 14c | 553.73$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.73 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed Yes | 47c | 537$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.61 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 62c | 529.55$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.49 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 42c | 521.89$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.24 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…15dbbacked No | 63c | 494.6$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 25c | 479.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 47c | 451$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.03 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…6487backed No | 53c | 451$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…66acbacked No | 66c | 445.65$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.25 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5515…7d9fbacked No | 59c | 436.31$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906e…bc2bbacked Yes | 8c | 435$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +225.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed No | 53c | 424$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.72 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 3c | 416$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 3c | 415.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 10cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…098abacked Yes | 36c | 408.5$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.34 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 34c | 386.17$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.04 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed Yes | 23c | 380$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.7 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed No | 53c | 377$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.81 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 13c | 369.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed Yes | 47c | 351$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.03 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed No | 53c | 351$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.03 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed No | 53c | 341$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes | 47c | 341$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.73 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked Yes | 7c | 340$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.65 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd27…2807backed No | 52c | 335.26$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.48 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked Yes | 42c | 320$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 47c | 319.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.09 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800e…4595backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.24 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +5.0wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.4 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 298.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.04 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8669…7111backed No | 58c | 295.77$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 53cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…9a32backed No | 72c | 276.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed Yes | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…98e8backed No | 53c | 263$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.39 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c7…2028backed Yes | 31c | 259.09$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…0a31backed Yes | 36c | 252.39$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.24 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 6c | 242.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.86 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 7c | 240$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.26 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked Yes | 37c | 237.84$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.9 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…4b34backed Yes | 76c | 229.51$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…fb20backed No | 61c | 228.11$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9179…4096backed No | 57c | 225$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…c1bdbacked No | 61c | 219.42$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 64c | 217.06$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 29c | 215.53$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e32…d1c4backed Yes | 33c | 214.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.08 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed No | 55c | 214$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.4 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…f154backed Yes | 44c | 213.36$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.51 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes | 48c | 209.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.73 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.99 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 35c | 198$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b5…1d89backed No | 61c | 196.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed Yes | 18c | 194.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.4 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2865…2005backed No | 66c | 192.07$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.21 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Yes | 36c | 185.31$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.31 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…f842backed No | 61c | 181.08$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 17c | 180$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.8 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d1…cb57backed No | 73c | 173.54$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b52…d558backed No | 68c | 167.53$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.62 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes | 48c | 167.16$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.16 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…6828backed No | 61c | 163.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…2277backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked No | 53c | 160$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.