Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38bc84a282fdc99f1b3067af18abd0e68385a65a368f861bb7c15e8cc1774f60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x807f…caf7backed No | 0c | 16,199$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 0c | 3,135$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes | 78c | 2,290$1,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.4 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…098abacked Yes | 47c | 1,934$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.78 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 58c | 1,575$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.88 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f51…c63cbacked Yes | 51c | 1,499$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed Yes | 50c | 1,449$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…c13fbacked No | 50c | 1,075$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…f596backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed No | 49c | 946$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f49…c080backed No | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5236…ab18backed No | 54c | 930.52$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes | 50c | 898$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed Yes | 51c | 875$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.75 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 9c | 795$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…b799backed No | 54c | 734.73$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 61c | 705.57$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.94 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2865…2005backed No | 42c | 699.98$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.99 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aef…9efebacked No | 59c | 572.92$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c1…6512backed No | 50c | 499$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 48c | 496$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.92 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked No | 52c | 496$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.92 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92e7…3ba9backed Yes | 64c | 461.47$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.33 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed Yes | 51c | 451.38$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.17 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 48c | 443.04$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 47c | 442.74$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.74 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 40c | 424.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…cfefbacked No | 49c | 410$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +203%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked No | 49c | 405$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.45 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed No | 50c | 399$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69c6…c414backed No | 3c | 355.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed No | 50c | 348$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 48c | 347.63$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.63 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 46c | 340.99$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.91 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes | 50c | 327$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd27…2807backed No | 48c | 300$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +24.9wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x560a…3b5cbacked Yes | 45c | 299.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…f375backed No | 51c | 299.45$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked No | 49c | 296$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.04 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 50c | 290$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…cae1backed Yes | 50c | 290$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 46c | 262.74$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.57 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc976…0ad5backed No | 5c | 255.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4013backed No | 65c | 255.17$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.61 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked No | 50c | 251$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb0…f77dbacked Yes | 43c | 249.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.49 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…15dbbacked No | 57c | 243.84$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.06 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8274…118dbacked No | 52c | 240.44$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked No | 50c | 200.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff7…23c8backed No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed Yes | 37c | 176.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.58 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…c913backed No | 49c | 174$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x264e…a41abacked No | 59c | 169.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f2…49babacked No | 59c | 168.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f0…2a9cbacked No | 60c | 166.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 162.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a01…a9edbacked No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…fb20backed No | 57c | 153.52$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.19 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed Yes | 52c | 152.52$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 52c | 150$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked No | 50c | 146.43$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.09 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.36per pick | 55cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2e…fe02backed No | 49c | 143$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc8…a9a1backed No | 57c | 135.16$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b8…5127backed No | 58c | 133.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee4b…9eecbacked Yes | 56c | 125.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7021…adcebacked No | 61c | 123.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 110.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed No | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 32c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6b…7cf3backed No | 52c | 106.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed No | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed49…8785backed No | 53c | 100.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…9d52backed No | 58c | 97.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bb…7bcabacked No | 49c | 94.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…f5b4backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e6…ae68backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9b…8a91backed Yes | 46c | 85.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed23…995ebacked Yes | 39c | 85.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d3…6781backed No | 52c | 76.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc3…d64abacked No | 57c | 74.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb21…66e9backed No | 57c | 73.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb02…05d7backed No | 24c | 65.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 47c | 63.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf11e…1828backed No | 52c | 63.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…6828backed No | 53c | 62.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 47c | 62.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4224…b2dabacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c2…ea84backed No | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b8…363abacked No | 55c | 53.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cb…6e8fbacked No | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 42c | 47.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 49c | 47.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | -12.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88b1…c6b3backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +49%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab76…9a7fbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.