TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0b2e…fe02

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
64
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: AI, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category AI at 58 out of 100; worst Movies at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-51.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Movies — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.23
Will Ryan Gosling attend the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$166.16
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.32
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.68
Will Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.48
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+56.3%+$138.24
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+38.9%+$25.48
Will Park Chan-wook be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$54.21
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+108.3%+$110.24
Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$418Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$417.88
Will Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$140.07
Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+75.4%+$16.77
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$159
All 14 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$416Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+41.2%+$171.4
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$29.44
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$399.6
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$186.3
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.09
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$334Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$333.96
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$632Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$632.23
Will the Brooklyn Nets have the worst record in the NBA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+25%+$49
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.82
Will the San Antonio Spurs make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.89
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$118.8
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick29cpaid+123.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$105.85
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$34.56
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$281Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$596.36
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.46
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$134.19
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+669.2%+$87.87
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$424Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$424.08
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.88
Will diVine launch iOS app by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+244.8%+$66.03
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-43.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NEC win on 2026-01-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+127.3%+$294
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Vitality Dominates HLTV Awards Parlay backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+78.6%+$207.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$14.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Drake's next album debut No.1 on Billboard 200?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Partizan vs. BC Dubaibacked BC Dubai · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.07
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.