Movies · resolved market
Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f16f9cb7c9416156e08685781e31d4f8d1a3c15e2512117c5b16f33f722167b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd70b…a152backed Yes | 62c | 1,178$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed No | 38c | 744$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.28 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +73%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2e…fe02backed Yes | 62c | 674$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.88 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 54c | 564$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.56 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked No | 46c | 564$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.56 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…e52dbacked No | 38c | 488$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…e7d3backed No | 38c | 455$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.1 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87dd…e210backed No | 35c | 439.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.71 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +134.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 38c | 434$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.08 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 61c | 420$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.2 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d41…a377backed Yes | 66c | 377.9$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0219…2676backed Yes | 19c | 262.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed Yes | 62c | 234$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.08 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 35c | 224.39$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.3 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 40c | 221.67$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed No | 23c | 150.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.59 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 66c | 140.8$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.47 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…663bbacked No | 41c | 128.32$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed No | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.31 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +147.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…adcabacked Yes | 53c | 107.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ce…ad51backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 19c | 92.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 67c | 89.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb534…f3b2backed Yes | 66c | 75.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 78c | 72.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x926d…635ebacked Yes | 70c | 71.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 70.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed Yes | 66c | 66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 78c | 65.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 38c | 50.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…adbcbacked No | 49c | 42.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 37.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b8…799cbacked Yes | 66c | 37.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed Yes | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b74…6516backed Yes | 43c | 34.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…ea38backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e46…24debacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked No | 51c | 29.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…b009backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c9…07bbbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…845dbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will "Acceptance Speech" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Drink" or "Drunk" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Epstein" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "God" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will "Jesus" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will "Kamala" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Mention" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Minnesota" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Six Seven" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Trump" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Venezuela" or "Maduro" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Weird" or "Weirdo" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will "White House" or "Ballroom" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.