Movies · resolved market
Will "Mention" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b7c41b61d14bee0c4f7308db8e4befb036738d33b92d5e590691f080940984e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 32c | 347.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.38 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 26c | 336.35$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…4e62backed No | 28c | 130$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 36c | 120.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e46…24debacked No | 61c | 108.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 74c | 92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 72c | 79.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 73c | 70$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 29c | 62.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87dd…e210backed No | 33c | 47.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +134.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…0854backed No | 28c | 45.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…d101backed Yes | 70c | 42.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbc…1782backed Yes | 69c | 39.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…845dbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Mention" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Acceptance Speech" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Drink" or "Drunk" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Epstein" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "God" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will "Jesus" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will "Kamala" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Minnesota" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Six Seven" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Trump" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Venezuela" or "Maduro" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Weird" or "Weirdo" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will "White House" or "Ballroom" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.