Movies · resolved market
Will "Drink" or "Drunk" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44233ff787848e8b316f31821c9469e8f4e932addef7904bf2aa0f6dd4cfb359
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 32c | 758$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.44 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82e4…fa57backed Yes | 68c | 568$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed No | 33c | 308.28$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.3 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Yes | 68c | 190$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…663bbacked Yes | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 37c | 118.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…53dcbacked No | 32c | 112$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…a315backed Yes | 68c | 112$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 21c | 92.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Yes | 68c | 70.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 65.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 73c | 59.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 40c | 49.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 32c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked No | 28c | 44.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32e…7f7bbacked Yes | 71c | 35.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 70c | 29.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Drink" or "Drunk" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Acceptance Speech" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Epstein" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "God" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will "Jesus" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will "Kamala" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Mention" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Minnesota" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Six Seven" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Trump" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Venezuela" or "Maduro" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Weird" or "Weirdo" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will "White House" or "Ballroom" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.