TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Trump" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,593
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,176

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,593 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x87dd…e210backed No53c418.81$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.845100%5 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+134.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1220…741abacked Yes42c411$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.621741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes16c400$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-74.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d38…e898backed No58c317$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.142045%9 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No71c227.17$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.822133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed Yes42c220$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.82231.8%7 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-50.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed No73c201.91$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.174663%29 W · 17 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+25%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes47c185.47$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.44326.3%2 W · 30 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick21cpaid-80.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes20c182$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.35324.5%13 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x706c…7752backed Yes42c174.13$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5240%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes29c140$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.13728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-53.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c91…e891backed Yes47c105.81$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes31c102.78$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6414337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb42d…f33ebacked No61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-79.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ec…663bbacked No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-32.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2b6…42ddbacked Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc9f…35e5backed No48c99.96$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.04540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d17…1e5ebacked No58c94$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.483256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+29.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x926d…635ebacked Yes54c92.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-73.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No55c88$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9287033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes40c75.32$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.946222.6%14 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7fc…7d9fbacked Yes68c73.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes35c64.94$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.841,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes43c62.38$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.936036.7%22 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-27.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69cb…0046backed Yes35c57.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73bd…d101backed Yes56c53.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.320%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x660f…ec30backed Yes52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.230%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0433…23dfbacked Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ce2…5f90backed No62c48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.246100%6 W · 0 L+2.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+147.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x16cf…639fbacked No62c44$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.725100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+67%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c75…fd50backed Yes49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20100%0 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9de1…f272backed No56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd470…ea38backed Yes56c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.630%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd38…3b14backed Yes48c34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6110…fd07backed Yes39c34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb653…b87fbacked Yes46c32.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151650%8 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-3.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e50…7a6bbacked No65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.772245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd45f…2bc9backed Yes35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked No57c26.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+36.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaad…2351backed Yes60c25.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes45c23.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7423041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d9…2df8backed Yes50c20.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfef6…e212backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c9…07bbbacked Yes51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-45.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfa5…3f52backed No56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.410139.6%40 W · 61 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b5e…8c90backed Yes58c17.69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b07…02f4backed No59c16.88$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.