Movies · resolved market
Will "Trump" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4af5ca94d3d7ef4b95950ef537740b912f542137f15ccc7cba27c63a0ca707dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87dd…e210backed No | 53c | 418.81$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.84 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +134.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked Yes | 42c | 411$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.62 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed No | 58c | 317$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.14 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 71c | 227.17$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 42c | 220$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 73c | 201.91$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 47c | 185.47$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.44 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 20c | 182$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…7752backed Yes | 42c | 174.13$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes | 29c | 140$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…e891backed Yes | 47c | 105.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 102.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb42d…f33ebacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…663bbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b6…42ddbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…35e5backed No | 48c | 99.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked No | 58c | 94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x926d…635ebacked Yes | 54c | 92.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 40c | 75.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fc…7d9fbacked Yes | 68c | 73.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 64.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 43c | 62.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69cb…0046backed Yes | 35c | 57.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…d101backed Yes | 56c | 53.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0433…23dfbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed No | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +147.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…639fbacked No | 62c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…ea38backed Yes | 56c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd38…3b14backed Yes | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6110…fd07backed Yes | 39c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb653…b87fbacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e50…7a6bbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd45f…2bc9backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked No | 57c | 26.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…2351backed Yes | 60c | 25.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 45c | 23.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d9…2df8backed Yes | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfef6…e212backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c9…07bbbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa5…3f52backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5e…8c90backed Yes | 58c | 17.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b07…02f4backed No | 59c | 16.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Trump" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Acceptance Speech" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Drink" or "Drunk" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Epstein" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "God" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will "Jesus" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will "Kamala" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Mention" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Minnesota" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Six Seven" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Venezuela" or "Maduro" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Weird" or "Weirdo" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will "White House" or "Ballroom" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.