Movies · resolved market
Will "Weird" or "Weirdo" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9c3d9700eda0632708404913cbad26ac2de31bea2ae09c6075a8d71a5ee0ef7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5395…9d41backed Yes | 67c | 889$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.37 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked No | 33c | 570$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.1 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…3c30backed No | 33c | 552$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 67c | 488$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.04 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 67c | 415$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.95 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed No | 33c | 415$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.95 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 67c | 365$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.45 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…1058backed No | 33c | 332$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed No | 33c | 260$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 14c | 207.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 67c | 131$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed No | 33c | 131$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x668b…3884backed Yes | 67c | 123$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed No | 33c | 123$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed Yes | 59c | 116.63$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +147.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…d467backed No | 34c | 116.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked No | 33c | 105$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…663bbacked No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 41c | 99.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…adcabacked Yes | 55c | 99.26$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 67c | 82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 18c | 78.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 23c | 68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 54c | 36.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…b801backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dda…58afbacked Yes | 54c | 20.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c9…07bbbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 76c | 13.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Weird" or "Weirdo" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Acceptance Speech" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Drink" or "Drunk" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Epstein" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "God" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will "Jesus" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will "Kamala" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Mention" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Minnesota" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Six Seven" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Trump" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Venezuela" or "Maduro" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "White House" or "Ballroom" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.