TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8737…2bff

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
177
Categories scored
27
Categories below 50
17

Best Category: Weather, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 56 out of 100; worst Movies at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT3141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.63
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$459.84
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$286.09
Will "Epstein" be said at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$100.8
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.84
Will Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$36.96
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$248Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$172.2
Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$357Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$356.64
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$337Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+61.3%+$206.34
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+25%+$71.2
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+75.4%+$38.7
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$177.48
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$650Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$650.26
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$266.76
Will Wunmi Mosaku be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$182
Will Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$321Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$320.95
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$150.8
Will Joachim Trier be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+40.8%+$71.63
Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$51.23
Will Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+470.3%+$611.9
Will "Sentimental Value" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$39.52
Will "It Was Just an Accident" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$633Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+75.4%+$477.3
Will The Pitt win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$751Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+35.1%+$263.9
Will "Sarah Silverman: Postmortem" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$252.51
Will Good Hang with Amy Poehler win Best Podcast at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+35.1%+$54.34
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT2955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.34
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$181.04
Will Naz Reid win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$473Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$125.79
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$430Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$430.49
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$23.46
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$442Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$442.05
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$244.2
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$268Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$268.32
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$249Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+66.9%+$166.42
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$259.08
Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$277Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$92.25
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.95
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$409.86
Will the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$216.84
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$266.8
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$15.4
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+113.7%+$140.45
Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$572Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$571.71
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$402Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$100.6
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.81
Will the Los Angeles Lakers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.99
Will the New Orleans Pelicans have the worst record in the NBA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$54.47
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$384Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$235.22
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$292Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$258.97
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$754Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+37%+$279.15
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$49.05
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$486Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$137.06
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$260.61
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$317.14
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$187.02
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $3.00 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.88
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.08
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$30.72
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.26
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$842.86
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.6
Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$186.66
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21.6
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+525%+$754.32
GPT ads by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+354.5%+$121.68
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+212.5%+$142.8
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$563Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+56.3%+$316.8
Google Gemini Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$143.08
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+49.3%+$8.58
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$959Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$959.33
Will Jensen Huang say "Bubble" during NVIDIA keynote?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$31.24
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$23.92
Will Paramount acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$35.24
All 23 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT1963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will more than 350 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.23
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.06
Major solar storm by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.21
Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$271Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+26.4%+$71.69
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$453Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$452.9
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+37%+$6.75
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+614.3%+$402.48
Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$91.28
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$197.64
Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$80.55
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$517Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+35.1%+$181.74
Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$332Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+40.8%+$135.43
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+78.9%+$158.82
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$268Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+108.3%+$290.16
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$579Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+44.9%+$260.09
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$256Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+225.3%+$576.92
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$88.25
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$456Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$152
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$57.75
All 19 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT1533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$394Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$185.6
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$21.56
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.66
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.96
Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$168.46
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$270.84
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$369Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+47.1%+$173.44
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 22-28, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+334.8%+$62.37
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+194.7%+$251.07
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$210
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$42.84
Will Israel strike 2 countries in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.5
Will the US strike Syria next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$38.74
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$67.04
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$26.86
All 15 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-77.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+42.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+99.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-64.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-53.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+242.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+72.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Querétaro FC vs. FC Juárez: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+99.6%+$209.58
Will FC Juárez win on 2026-02-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$101.27
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.56
Will Portsmouth FC win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$339Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+270.4%+$916.15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atlético Madrid advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$66.82
Will Club Brugge advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$139.11
All 2 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+122.2%+$253
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be between $4.6B and $5.0B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$443Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+35.1%+$155.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$11.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anyone's Legend qualify to MSI 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$334Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$333.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$307Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$306.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$202.92
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.