Weather · resolved market
Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec32e720867f4695b47f870a951d702667cb373111e61f0366c7fef387f94d82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51b1…7865backed Yes | 0c | 12,238$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…d6cebacked Yes | 1c | 3,491$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…9739backed Yes | 4c | 3,139$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.57 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,029$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,564$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad08…1e64backed Yes | 1c | 1,307$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 5c | 1,276$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 3c | 1,172$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ef…79d6backed Yes | 23c | 899$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 1c | 832.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09be…76d5backed Yes | 27c | 727$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked No | 73c | 725$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed Yes | 27c | 696$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.92 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 667.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…ee5abacked Yes | 23c | 644$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…d4f7backed No | 73c | 619$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 77c | 557$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.11 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 15c | 537$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 19c | 504$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3e…3eb8backed Yes | 2c | 491.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…a3a2backed No | 77c | 456$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.88 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 420.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 21c | 402.08$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.49 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 349.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 19c | 302$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed No | 80c | 295$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.33 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed No | 77c | 274$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1c…7406backed Yes | 23c | 274$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed No | 77c | 260$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked No | 77c | 188$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes | 27c | 135$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077a…ec51backed Yes | 26c | 76.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 79c | 55.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 75c | 21.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…1d69backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?this page
- Will January 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?No won
- Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?No won
- Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.