Weather · resolved market
Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb218412bc0b0aa57e1c673d12443fa4130fc4c6421fb19368c5012eced14864
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $161,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2543…d25cbacked Yes | 1c | 10,590$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74fa…64d7backed Yes | 1c | 10,590$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 18c | 9,930$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.49 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4053…07ffbacked Yes | 1c | 7,560$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce6…752fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,560$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 9c | 4,170$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.09 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed Yes | 0c | 4,100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82fc…27d0backed Yes | 1c | 3,572$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -82%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…9739backed Yes | 11c | 1,975$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.21 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,658$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 3c | 1,430$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,320$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.94 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…69e5backed No | 76c | 1,255$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes | 40c | 1,196$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes | 21c | 1,133$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.93 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,075$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed Yes | 40c | 1,013$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed No | 60c | 942$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed No | 79c | 873$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed Yes | 28c | 797$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…88adbacked No | 75c | 766$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 765$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…e68dbacked Yes | 27c | 742$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed No | 77c | 731$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.13 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes | 27c | 715$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.05 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked No | 60c | 702$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 60c | 670$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed No | 73c | 670$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed No | 71c | 630$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed Yes | 40c | 611$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 583.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…65c5backed Yes | 25c | 583$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 3c | 545.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed Yes | 21c | 537$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.77 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed No | 71c | 503$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +140%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…5adebacked No | 72c | 496$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked No | 71c | 467$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.43 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked No | 79c | 447$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.87 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 21c | 447$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.87 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed Yes | 24c | 444$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed Yes | 21c | 433$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.93 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47d…907bbacked No | 75c | 415$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked No | 79c | 414$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed No | 60c | 414$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…f1d9backed Yes | 27c | 413$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 72c | 412$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.36 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed No | 73c | 405$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.35 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed Yes | 25c | 405$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 33c | 402.08$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.75 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed No | 72c | 385$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…d6cebacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 383.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed No | 80c | 383$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…c93dbacked Yes | 20c | 383$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…2bcdbacked Yes | 30c | 382$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed No | 71c | 371$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.59 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2e…fe02backed No | 79c | 333$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 6c | 325.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed Yes | 29c | 325.76$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.47 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed No | 73c | 315$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 309$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…1058backed No | 79c | 303$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed No | 75c | 301$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 72c | 292$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.76 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 21c | 285$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed No | 75c | 282$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 24c | 282$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed Yes | 23c | 274$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed Yes | 30c | 271$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…4165backed Yes | 22c | 268$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed No | 73c | 257$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes | 29c | 254$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…cc1dbacked No | 60c | 249$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1124…af2cbacked Yes | 40c | 248.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1c…7406backed Yes | 24c | 245$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…8cf7backed Yes | 29c | 234$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 231.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b22…754cbacked Yes | 22c | 229.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes | 25c | 210$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…0b1ebacked Yes | 29c | 203$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked No | 78c | 184$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 75c | 171.23$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 163.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked No | 73c | 158$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 40c | 152$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed Yes | 25c | 151$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 141.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked No | 76c | 141$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed Yes | 24c | 141$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked No | 60c | 134$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 40c | 131$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4e…6533backed No | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?this page
- Will January 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?No won
- Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?No won
- Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.