TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x02ee…5ade

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
95
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Weather, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 56 out of 100; worst World Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$351Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+88.4%+$310.1
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$992Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$991.98
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+37%+$63.18
Will Hamnet win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$13.76
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$11.76
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$16.8
Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+37%+$41.31
Will Cynthia Erivo be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$72.32
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$23.43
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$103.82
Will Chloé Zhao be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+26.6%+$21.21
Will Frankenstein be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+61.3%+$34.2
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+28.2%+$83.6
Will The Studio win Best Television Series – Comedy or Musical at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$53.82
Will One Battle After Another win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$373Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$372.78
Will Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) win Best Supporting Actress – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+28.2%+$13.86
Will Owen Cooper (Adolescence) win Best Supporting Actor – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$54.74
Will Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$14.88
Will Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+163.2%+$251.1
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) win Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$106.95
Will "Run Away" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$64.67
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$49.5
Will A Minecraft Movie be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+40.8%+$11.89
All 23 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT2050%10 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+29.6%+$9.82
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.87
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$233.92
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$639Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$639
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+45.4%+$9.05
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$565Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$565.17
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$20.52
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.81
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$323Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$322.69
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.4
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.46
Will the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$244Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+391.9%+$956.07
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$254.02
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$78.5
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$48.23
Will the Denver Nuggets make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.76
Will the Memphis Grizzlies make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$286Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$100.62
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+31.6%+$49.92
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+28.2%+$19.36
Will Trae Young be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+66.7%+$104.8
All 20 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+83.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$484Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+25%+$121
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+400%+$318.4
Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$357Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+38.9%+$138.88
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+81.8%+$52.65
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$52.75
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+420.5%+$114.72
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$23.62
All 8 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-54.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-35.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Lyman by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$30.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.