Movies · resolved market
Will Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fb55b6156372d824ad8950b4ba89fad566774a09291f7de10f692683d8ff117
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 16c | 3,717$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.77 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes | 16c | 1,192$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.72 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked Yes | 12c | 933$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.96 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…a3a2backed Yes | 15c | 791$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.08 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes | 16c | 769$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.04 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed Yes | 15c | 748$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 13c | 716.01$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed Yes | 14c | 713$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb7…6cd5backed Yes | 18c | 696$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.28 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed Yes | 16c | 612$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.48 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 15c | 599.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…391abacked Yes | 14c | 583$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09be…76d5backed Yes | 16c | 559$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 16c | 557.35$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.38 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73df…ba67backed Yes | 13c | 543$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes | 16c | 540$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 13c | 536.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed Yes | 17c | 527$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…d66ebacked Yes | 19c | 478.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked Yes | 14c | 454$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed Yes | 16c | 431$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked Yes | 14c | 388$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed Yes | 13c | 387$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed Yes | 16c | 381$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked Yes | 14c | 364$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…43e9backed Yes | 14c | 358$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…7f30backed Yes | 16c | 355$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed Yes | 16c | 343$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed Yes | 15c | 328.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes | 14c | 321$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 17c | 319.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…ee5abacked Yes | 14c | 316$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 16c | 312$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…1272backed Yes | 16c | 312$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed Yes | 16c | 297.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 276.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x713d…15d0backed Yes | 15c | 270.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 16c | 236$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…cb02backed Yes | 16c | 225$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…89d8backed Yes | 13c | 222$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -59%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…8be4backed Yes | 16c | 221$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 19c | 201.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 198.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 10c | 190.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…b842backed Yes | 16c | 162$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd81…ae79backed Yes | 13c | 161$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 14c | 150.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…53e0backed Yes | 16c | 143$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…78cbbacked Yes | 13c | 126$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes | 16c | 121$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked No | 78c | 121$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 16c | 114$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed Yes | 16c | 109$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 97.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…5adebacked Yes | 16c | 93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 75c | 85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed Yes | 16c | 84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 16c | 78.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Paul Mescal (Hamnet) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.